Beijing’s leadership offers the best chance of resolving the North Korean missile crisis
Tom Manning says though China’s leverage over Pyongyang is likely to have been overestimated, it remains the leading actor in this crisis – Asia’s most powerful nation has the credibility and diplomatic skills needed to step up
China holds the key to resolve this difficult situation – if it chooses to use its diplomatic skill and economic capability, and its ability to provide enlightened leadership. Illustration: Craig Stephens
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s brazen testing of an intercontinental ballistic missile was widely condemned by the international community as reckless and provocative. The action was clearly intended to taunt the United States and further intimidate both South Korea and Japan. Years ago, North Korea seemed peripheral to China – now, it has become China’s principal external challenge and central to China’s image as a leader on the Asian and world stage.
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The situation is highly unstable and requires immediate attention. China has wisely emphasised a de-escalation of tensions, and yet numerous factors suggest that will be impossible unless Beijing plays a leadership role in bringing the parties back to the negotiating table. Kim is considered unpredictable and dangerous, and US President Donald Trump is bombastic in his own way, so no one really knows how long this stand-off will last. Without China’s help, neither side is likely to back down.
Watch: North Korea claims successful test of intercontinental ballistic missile
China’s relationship with Pyongyang is complicated and dates back to the early days of the Chinese Communist Party. The long-running relationship would suggest a ready means for dialogue, but the current era, which began with Kim’s ascent to the top post, has been marked less by warmth and camaraderie than by caution and frustration. In short, China’s leverage is likely to be overestimated in the West – and yet, relative to other actors in the equation, it remains best equipped to engineer a peaceful resolution.
China’s leverage is likely to be overestimated ... yet it remains best equipped to engineer a peaceful resolution
The G20 summit last week should have been a venue for voicing concerns and pressing for assistance on this key issue. Given the presence of the five nations which participated in the last attempt at negotiation with North Korea, known as the six-party talks, which began in 2003 and ended abruptly in 2009, the summit presented a prime opportunity to achieve a new meeting of minds. Unfortunately, the meeting did not address the issue in a robust manner. Despite being critical of China’s perceived ineffectiveness, the US instead allowed its preoccupation with Russia to distract it from its more important mission. Regrettably, the discussion with China on Saturday was modest and failed to break new ground.
It is worth remembering that all five nations – China, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the US – share a strong interest in avoiding military conflict on the Korean peninsula and should support steps towards both defusing the crisis and ultimately bringing about the elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons capability. A war on the Korean peninsula is in no one’s interest – a first-strike military attack by the US would lead to an instant counter-attack and large-scale loss of life in both South Korea and Japan.
North Koreans wait to perform a mass dance as part of celebrations in Pyongyang on July 6, marking the successful launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile two days earlier. A war on the Korean peninsula is in no one’s interest. Photo: AFP
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Collateral effects would also be costly – fleeing North Korean refugees would strain China’s resources, and Chinese citizens working in North Korea could be injured or killed in military exchanges, which could give rise to sudden and hard-to-control animosity across China. The initial anger would focus on the US, but the situation could easily become unwieldy and place Beijing in an untenable position of needing to show restraint while also needing to flash its strength in order to protect its image at home. If the US forces somehow succeeded in bringing about regime change, eventual occupation of North Korea by American and South Korean military forces would redraw the power structure of North Asia in ways unhelpful to China.
