The great unravelling of a US-led global order

Two category four hurricanes have hit the United States within two weeks. In Asia, North Korea is threatening nuclear Armageddon, and floods and famine put thousands at risk from Bangladesh to Yemen. How can one survive in this chaotic era?

A first step must be to make sense of the apparent chaos. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma prove that climate change is not fake science. When hailstones the size of golf balls hit Istanbul in the middle of summer, even agnostics must accept climate change as serious business.

The biggest uncertainty that has hit Asia recently is that North Korea has not only possibly developed a hydrogen bomb, but also the capability to deliver it to the United States. This has changed the geopolitical balance not only in North Asia, but globally because it is no longer possible for the US to contain nuclear proliferation alone.

Physics teaches us that chaos is often a characteristic of transition from one order to another. In this case, there is a seismic transition to a multipolar world of competing powers and ideologies, particularly after the 2007 global financial crisis. The rise of China and India, plus increasing assertiveness by Russia and non-state actors like Islamic State, challenge the US’ ability to dominate militarily and ideologically.

At the same time, increasing stresses from social inequalities and paranoia over terrorism, immigration and job losses have made the United States more inward-looking. The Trump administration has begun dismantling the neoliberal order of multilateral trade and finance shaping US foreign policy for decades. There is a raw open division within the US in outlook and values. The Democratic left believes in maintaining the old order of leadership on human rights, democracy and multilateral global stability, while the Republican right questions these beliefs.