My Take | Rothschild proved right again after Las Vegas massacre

It’s a sad commentary on the United States that investors took his saying to heart so literally yesterday. Two of America’s biggest gun stocks shot up after the massacre in Las Vegas: Sturm Ruger and Company went up by 3.48 per cent, and American Outdoor Brands, better known as Smith&Wesson, by 3.21 per cent.

There are few well-known investment tricks that actually work. But you can reliably predict that US gun stocks will go up, at least for a short time, whenever there is a mass shooting resulting in heavy casualties. It’s important, though, that it is not reported in the mass media as a “terrorist” attack. In the case of the suspected gunman, 64-year-old Stephen Paddock, it’s clearly not. This is despite a claim of responsibility by the terrorist group Islamic State, which has been dismissed by US authorities.

The investment logic is simple, if perverse. If it’s a terror attack, it won’t affect domestic gun laws and therefore gun sales. But if it is a mass killing by a random US citizen, there will inevitably be calls for tougher gun controls. This means many Americans, who love guns and consider their ownership essential to liberty, will rush out to buy more, especially expensive high-power rifles, leading to higher sales for the next quarter or two.