
Why Xi Jinping must ensure China has a viable political succession model
Andrei Lungu says after upending the old rules at the recent party congress, China’s most powerful leader in recent decades must now create a new system that will ensure transfer of power at the top remains peaceful and stable

In contrast, the new Politburo and the Standing Committee look very different. Wang Qishan might have retired, but the other three Xi allies who were Politburo members have all joined the Standing Committee. This was by no means a given: in the past two decades, older Politburo members were prioritised over younger ones when it came to such promotions. The logic was simple: the younger members had another chance five years later. This way, more Politburo members had the opportunity to serve a single term on the Standing Committee.
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Just as impressive is the composition of the new Politburo: at least nine of the 15 new members seem to be old Xi allies, most of them having worked with him in the provinces. Xi seems to have assured himself a majority in both the Politburo and its Standing Committee. If Xi managed to accumulate so much power in the past five years with just a few allies, he now firmly dominates the party.
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At this point, Xi seems to be in a position to change much of the Chinese political system, if he so desires. His second term might focus on the economy and foreign and military affairs, but Xi will need to solve a central dilemma: creating a new succession mechanism. The old one, created by Deng, might not have been perfect, but it enabled two successful transfers of power. How Xi designs the new succession mechanism and whether it will be effective will be an important part of his legacy.
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This opens up an important possibility: the power Xi will accumulate over the next five years will make it possible for him to transform the internal mechanics of Chinese politics. For three decades, affiliation with leaders and the balance of power between competing networks, or factions, have dominated the system. While promotions at the lower and middle levels might have been based on merit, the most prominent factor at the higher levels was one’s relations with important politicians.
To consolidate his power, Xi has promoted numerous allies. But one day, both he and his allies will need to retire. The question is what comes next: the perpetuation of the same system based on personal ties, or a new, truly meritocratic system, maybe even with written rules, that would encourage the promotion of the politicians with the best results, who tried to implement bold, reformist ideas? The temptation to promote the politicians who profess their loyalty the loudest will be strong, but China would be better served if Xi promotes those most deserving.
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Thanks to the power he has accumulated, Xi is the first politician since Deng who has the authority to create such a system. In official discourse and throughout Chinese history, a merit-based system has been seen as the highest ideal. As China is entering a new era, one can only hope that such a meritocracy could become a reality.
Andrei Lungu is president of the Romanian Institute for the Study of the Asia-Pacific
