How Trump’s incoherent foreign policy promotes uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific and risks disaster

Will Saetren says American foreign policy, especially in the Asia-Pacific, depends on sending clear messages to allies and adversaries alike, and the unclear signals coming from the Trump administration could have catastrophic consequences

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Published: 6:30pm, 25 Jan 2018Updated: 7:17pm, 25 Jan 2018

Past presidents went to great lengths to assure America’s allies and draw unambiguous red lines for adversaries. In one year, Trump has taken a sledgehammer to these policies and shaken strategic stability to its core. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Last weekend, Donald Trump celebrated the one-year anniversary of his presidency. The 45th president of the United States entered office vowing to get tough with China, cut better deals and reassert America’s position as a Pacific power.

But one year later, Trump’s incoherent foreign policy has brought the US closer to “bending the knee” on the global stage than since the second world war. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Asia-Pacific, where Trump has left the strategic stability of the region, carefully crafted over decades, in tatters.

Strategic stability exists when competing nations have a high degree of certainty regarding actions of potential adversaries. There is an understanding that certain actions cause specific reactions, thereby minimising risk of conflict, caused by a miscalculation, which could escalate beyond control.

For decades, American power and prestige has been the bedrock of strategic stability. Past presidents went to great lengths to assure America’s allies and draw unambiguous red lines for adversaries. In one year, Trump has taken a sledgehammer to these policies and shaken strategic stability to its core.

One of Trump’s first moves upon taking office was to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which would have united countries representing 40 per cent of the world’s GDP. The agreement, signed by Trump’s predecessor but not yet ratified, would have benefited America by almost every measure. Most importantly, allies in the Pacific saw the TPP as demonstrating American commitment and a counter to China’s rising influence. As former US secretary of defence Ash Carter aptly put it, “passing TPP is as important to me as another aircraft carrier”. But Trump was more than willing to ignore the evidence and tear up “a bad deal” for no other discernible reason than it had his predecessor’s fingerprints on it.

US President Donald Trump shows off an executive order to withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership on January 23, 2017. Photo: AP