China must brace itself for the fallout of America the superpower losing its self-confidence
Tian Feilong warns that US inability to adapt to China’s rise may pose a serious security challenge, as a more suspicious America abandons its strategic patience and opts for more risky strategies to stifle China’s rejuvenation
US-led economic globalisation and the third wave of democratisation, with America in the vanguard, led Francis Fukuyama to proclaim the “end of history”. America’s confidence and swagger in its strategic prowess reached a peak. With US self-confidence at a high, Sino-US relations grew strong. The two developed some camaraderie in the stand-off with the Soviet Union, and learned what it was like to be in a mutually beneficial relationship.
With the US losing its strategic self-confidence and determination, relative to China’s, it is no longer able to face a rising China from the vantage point of calm superiority. We can see this in recent events.
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For a long time, the US approach to China has been a mix of containment and cooperation. But this works only if a sizeable gap in power exists between the two. You feel safe when your opponent is much weaker, and making a concession or ceding an advantage can be seen as gentlemanly or moral conduct. However, when your opponent catches up, you will find that the strategic space has shrunk and you are not ready to make accommodations.
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The elite of European and US society are highly suspicious of China’s “Belt and Road Initiative”. The US sees the plan as an attempt to export Chinese capital and economic models to challenge US hegemony, while the Europeans believe China is attempting to “create” two Europes, dividing the richer and more powerful western Europe from the poorer and weaker Central and Eastern European states. Meanwhile, both Europe and the US believe China is boldly challenging the dominance of Western civilisation and its cultural leadership with its “Eastern wisdom”.
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As the US undergoes a strategic contraction and as it loses confidence in its strategic advantage, a structural crisis may break out that will adversely affect Sino-US ties as well as world peace. The crux of the problem is that the trust between China and the US is limited and not enough to hedge against the “Thucydides Trap” scenario in US imagination.
In the face of China’s national rejuvenation, the US may no longer pursue a conventional containment or infiltration strategy. Nor will it patiently count on a combination of factors to push for peaceful democratisation in China. Instead, the US may adopt a risky strategy to stifle China’s rejuvenation by exploiting the security loopholes in its periphery.
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Sixth, the US may also try to capitalise on the risks of ethnic separatism and religious extremism on China’s western front, including Tibet and Xinjiang.
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The 19th party congress proclaimed that China is closer now than ever to realising the great rejuvenation of its nation. As it grows stronger, the US is weakening. Inevitably, the Thucydides Trap looms. Although China has repeatedly stressed its peaceful intent, its reassurances cannot change US strategic thinking or remove the hegemonic genes deeply rooted in Western culture. Therefore, the US will continue to feel culturally and politically insecure.
There is little China can do in this regard. As the US takes on more strategic risks, China must carefully review and implement its national security policy and strategies to prevent and control risks.
Tian Feilong is an associate professor at Beihang University’s Law School in Beijing and a director of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau. This is translated from Chinese