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Donald Trump
Opinion

Will the chaotic age of Trump lead to a shift in our understanding of the world?

Andrew Sheng says mainstream political and economic thinking has undergone an upheaval over the past decade without arriving at a consensus on our understanding of the world. Donald Trump’s election and his chaotic first year make the need for a paradigm of mutual understanding more urgent

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US President Donald Trump points to guests calling his name from the galleries following the State of the Union address on January 30 in Washington. Trump’s chaotic first year might be a sign that calm is on the way. Photo: Getty Images
Andrew Sheng
The new year is always a good time to think about the future. Last year was a year of prosperity and low market volatility. Unlike 2007, when the subprime crisis broke out in the US, there seemed to be a synchronised recovery in the advanced countries, after a lost decade of slow growth and low productivity, while the emerging markets also appear to have recovered some export strength. Financial markets in January 2018 celebrated and then corrected rapidly in February.
No one has escaped this globally synchronised price correction, including China’s A-share market, even though the Chinese economy seems to have stabilised on many fronts and is growing at its “new normal” pace of around 6 per cent.
Last year was also a year of reflection. US President Donald Trump’s first year in office shook the confidence of the US establishment in its ability to absorb change, for better or worse. Trump’s “America first” policies have challenged many established ideas of free press, free trade, rule of law and a welcoming attitude towards immigration. Even allies are wondering what is going on in foreign policy, as US policies in the Middle East, Russia and East Asia are undergoing dramatic shifts.

But underlying all this confusion, certain broad trends indicate that the world is already shifting rapidly not only in power, but also thinking and behaviour. One thing is certain – history will not move in straight lines, but there are patterns or rhythms that suggest a major paradigm shift is taking place that we all need to understand.

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The term “paradigm” was used by historian and physicist Thomas Kuhn to describe basic concepts and experimental practices of a scientific discipline, which include embedded assumptions, beliefs and interpretation of facts. There are, of course, different paradigms in religion, philosophy, politics or social science that compete with each other. For example, there are essentially two main paradigms in economics – Keynesian philosophy that calls for more state intervention and neoclassical thinking that advocates self-correcting free markets and minimal state interference.

Kuhn’s major contribution was introducing the concept of a paradigm shift in which the accepted or dominant paradigm gives way to new and competing ways of thinking.

How China’s development story can be an alternative to the Western model

The US National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends Report to 2030, published last year, recognises that by then “there will not be any hegemonic power” because “power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multipolar world”. This implies that the mainstream conventional political and economic thinking is both shifting and being challenged from multiple directions.
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