Advertisement
Legco by-election 2018
Opinion

Hong Kong by-elections show old ideas about local campaigning no longer hold true

Alice Wu says the real ramifications of last week’s by-election may not be known for some time, but DAB’s Vincent Cheng’s voter mobilisation and pan-democrat infighting are already clear takeaways

Reading Time:3 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
DAB’s Vincent Cheng Wing-shun, who won the Kowloon West seat at the Legislative Council by-election, thanks voters in Sham Shui Po. Photo: Nora Tam
Alice Wu
The Legislative Council by-election a little over a week ago wasn’t supposed to be that big of a story. The invalidation of Agnes Chow Ting’s Hong Kong Island candidacy and discovery of illegal structures at candidate Paul Zimmerman’s Sai Kung home got more attention than the subsequent campaigns.

Things were expected to be more or less the same. Pan-democrats were expected to win all geographical constituency seats for the by-election, as they have won every single Legco by-election for a geographical seat since the establishment of the Hong Kong special administrative region in 1997. The long-held “golden ratio” of pan-democratic candidates receiving 60 per cent of votes while pro-establishment candidates get 40 per cent guarantees pan-democrats win by-elections in the geographical constituencies, done with the first-past-the-post voting method.

So when political star, disqualified legislator Edward Yiu Chung-yim lost to Vincent Cheng Wing-shun of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong in Kowloon West, it rocked this city’s political world.

What happened to the disqualifications backlash? Five takeaways from Hong Kong’s Legco by-election

Cheng arguably entered the race with the worse odds, as Kowloon West has historically been a pan-democrat stronghold, with decades of grass-roots support due to the work of the Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People’s Livelihood (ADPL). In the 2016 Legislative Council elections, West Kowloon pro-establishment candidates received 36 per cent of the votes, faring even worse than the supposed golden ratio. And running against Yiu – the “face” of the pan-democrats’ referendum on the government’s disqualification of Legco members – Cheng had an even slimmer chance.
Advertisement
Edward Yiu, who lost the Kowloon West constituency for the Legislative Council by-election, embraces one of his voters to thank her for her support at Mei Foo. Photo: Nora Tam
Edward Yiu, who lost the Kowloon West constituency for the Legislative Council by-election, embraces one of his voters to thank her for her support at Mei Foo. Photo: Nora Tam

Poll leaves Hong Kong opposition in a right quandary

The pan-democrats were quick to apologise and take the blame for the stunning loss. But behind their “united front”, Yiu was blamed for his arrogance, not believing in traditional campaign work like going from door to door for support, while the ADPL was blamed for not mobilising supporters.
Advertisement
Advertisement
Select Voice
Choose your listening speed
Get through articles 2x faster
1.25x
250 WPM
Slow
Average
Fast
1.25x