Hong Kong by-elections show old ideas about local campaigning no longer hold true
Alice Wu says the real ramifications of last week’s by-election may not be known for some time, but DAB’s Vincent Cheng’s voter mobilisation and pan-democrat infighting are already clear takeaways
Things were expected to be more or less the same. Pan-democrats were expected to win all geographical constituency seats for the by-election, as they have won every single Legco by-election for a geographical seat since the establishment of the Hong Kong special administrative region in 1997. The long-held “golden ratio” of pan-democratic candidates receiving 60 per cent of votes while pro-establishment candidates get 40 per cent guarantees pan-democrats win by-elections in the geographical constituencies, done with the first-past-the-post voting method.
What happened to the disqualifications backlash? Five takeaways from Hong Kong’s Legco by-election
Poll leaves Hong Kong opposition in a right quandary
The irony of all ironies, of course, is that the whole idea of the primary was to eliminate infighting and rivalry, which the pan-democratic camp has been really good at. So perhaps the loss wasn’t so stunning after all.
Edward Yiu says pan-dems must explain confrontational Legco antics to voters
Solidarity requires much more challenging work like compromise, finding common ground and mutual respect. The camp has proven that they’ve not only been antagonistic in Legco against their rivals – and at every level against the government – they’ve been combative with their allies. This sort of splintering will cost them dearly if they don’t keep up with the changing electorate.
Speaking of the changing electorate, is it true that Cheng’s win means the public has changed so much that it now overwhelmingly supports disqualification of candidates, as some pro-establishment politicians have been quick to suggest? Cheng was the exception, not the rule. It may be that the votes pro-establishment candidates received in all three geographical constituencies were encouraging for the camp, and the electorate may be starting to defy the golden ratio, but it would be wise to keep a clear head.
Pan-democrats might find their missing by-election voters among indifferent young people
Alice Wu is a political consultant and a former associate director of the Asia Pacific Media Network at UCLA