China, US and South Korea must harmonise their North Korea strategies, or risk being outplayed by Kim Jong-un
Kristian McGuire says if the nuclear crisis is to be resolved, Beijing, Washington and Seoul must demonstrate a unity of purpose when negotiating with the North Korean leader. This cannot happen if one is trying to sideline another
Therefore, Washington, Beijing and Seoul would be wise to harmonise their North Korea strategies in preparation for drawn-out negotiations with the North, or, worse yet, a complete breakdown of the engagement efforts.
Failure to properly prepare for such eventualities will put the three parties in weak negotiating positions vis-à-vis Pyongyang and greatly diminish the odds of reaching a lasting settlement to the issue.
In contrast, Beijing’s North Korea strategy is risk-averse, limited in scope (Beijing prefers to only use economic and diplomatic sanctions approved by the UN Security Council to persuade Pyongyang to denuclearise), and emphasises engagement over pressure tactics.
Seoul, for its part, has developed a North Korea strategy that is largely derivative of Washington’s holistic approach but which attempts to bridge the gap between its ally’s hard line and Beijing’s unqualified faith in engagement.
Over the past few months, these three strategies have complemented one another, leading Pyongyang to assume a more cooperative posture.
Even if the North Korean leader is sincere about relinquishing his country’s most potent weapons, he won’t serve them up on a silver platter. It is in North Korea’s interests to try to play the US, China and South Korea off against one another to win as many concessions as it possibly can.
Ultimately, any lasting solution to the North Korean nuclear issue will require the support of South Korea, the US, and China. Were the US or China to somehow sideline the other in negotiations with North Korea and produce an agreement that does not take into account all parties’ security concerns, the resulting arrangement would only serve to increase Sino-US frictions over the long term.
Seoul, Washington and Beijing should therefore focus on producing a settlement to the North Korean nuclear issue that is acceptable to all. And they should keep in mind that each country will continue to pursue its own strategy, which means communication, accommodation and flexibility will be vital to ensuring that the three strategies remain complementary rather than competitive.
By harmonising their North Korea strategies, the US, China and South Korea can send a message to Pyongyang that they won’t be played off against one another, regardless of what happens with these first engagement efforts. Only once Pyongyang becomes convinced of their resolve and unity of purpose do they stand a chance of achieving a permanent settlement to the North Korean nuclear issue.
Kristian McGuire is an independent, Washington-based research analyst and associate editor of Taiwan Security Research. [email protected]