The shrinking ‘Quad’: how the alliance is going nowhere as Japan and India court China

Bob Carr says the dream of a strategic alliance between Australia, India, Japan and the US to counter China’s influence appears doomed, given that three of the four countries lack China’s infrastructure export capacity

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Both India and Japan are now vigorously pursuing their bilateral relationships with China, unrestrained by the anti-China messaging implicit in the formation of the Quad. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Published: 4:45pm, 17 May 2018Updated: 7:39pm, 17 May 2018

This week, Singapore ruled out signing up for “the Quad”, a consultative mechanism encompassing the United States, Japan, India and Australia. The Quad, with a history going back to 2007, was revived on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit last November. But, on Monday, Singapore’s foreign minister, Vivian Balakrishnan, said too many questions remain about the substance of the Quad for Singapore to consider joining.

This is the latest confirmation that the Quad is not fleshing itself out as a strategic entity. In fact, we might be witnessing the story of the incredibly shrinking Quad.

This will be a disappointment for some. In Australia, academics with a strong pro-American perspective have insisted on seeing the Quad as a symbol of US commitment to Asia, especially given all the uncertainties of US President Donald Trump.

Former Australian intelligence analyst and diplomat Alan Dupont wrote in February, “The embryonic Quad … will amplify Australia’s regional clout, improve our security and help diversify authoritarian risk”. Academic Rory Medcalf called the Quad “a symbol that the best hope of moderating a strong China’s behaviour involves others showing solidarity with each other”.

We might be witnessing the story of the incredibly shrinking Quad

They would be disappointed by what Southeast Asian leaders are themselves saying. The verdict of Singapore’s foreign minister follows what his own prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, said in March: “We do not want to end up with rival blocs forming or countries having to take one side or the other”.