Why North Korea’s summit threat may not be a bad thing
Kristian McGuire says if Kim Jong-un’s regime has no intent to give up its nuclear arsenal, or if it wants a more gradual process, then it’s better to find out now than at his meeting with Trump
First, experts fear that the US might squander one of its most powerful diplomatic cards by giving the regime the honour of a historic summit with the president without getting something substantial from Pyongyang.
The second, more serious concern is that, if the summit goes badly, the US and North Korea might conclude that diplomacy has hit a dead end, causing tensions to flare.
The Kim regime’s decision to strike a defiant tone barely a week after releasing the detainees, and with the prized summit still dangling before it, suggests either that the Kim regime isn’t interested in simply stealing a photo op with the US president, as some fear, or that US negotiators are preventing it from doing so.
After waging his charm offensive against South Korea and China, Kim may have calculated that he is now in position to start reasserting North Korea’s interests.
On the bright side, his goal could be to slow down the denuclearisation process rather than avoid it. North Korea advocates “phased, synchronised measures” to resolve the nuclear issue rather than the quick and complete denuclearisation process promoted by the US.
However, it is quite possible that Pyongyang has no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons. Its recent tone could be intended to sow discord among Washington, Seoul and Beijing so it can extract as many concessions as possible from all parties while maintaining its nuclear arsenal.
No matter the North’s true intentions, it is probably best that Pyongyang adopted a harder stance before the scheduled summit. If it sincerely wants to negotiate an end to the stand-off over its nuclear weapons, indicating its displeasure with the Trump administration’s denuclearisation plan will allow negotiations to begin in earnest.
On the other hand, if Pyongyang is merely following its old pattern of extorting concessions from whomever it can, its change in posture could help preserve a diplomatic tool that might prove useful should the Kim regime have a change of heart.
Kristian McGuire is an independent, Washington-based research analyst and associate editor of Taiwan Security Research. [email protected]
