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North Korea nuclear crisis
Opinion

Why Trump should make peace with the idea of a nuclear North Korea and focus on deterrence instead

Louis René Beres says it’s time for the US to accept that North Korea cannot and will not give up its nuclear weapons and to work out how to move on from here

Reading Time:4 minutes
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Nuclear diplomacy is not a casino game or akin to bluffing in property transactions. It is a complex contest of strategy, never one of mere chance. Illustration: Craig Stephens
Louis René Beres
After cancelling a summit with North Korea, US President Donald Trump must set realistic goals. He must back off from the idea that Pyongyang might be amenable to discarding its nuclear weapons or missile-delivery systems. At best, Kim Jong-un’s definition of “denuclearisation” is limited to temporarily halting his country’s already completed schedule of nuclear testing. Although Kim has hinted vaguely that his country would consider eliminating its nuclear weapons in tandem with “denuclearisation” of the Korean peninsula, there is little reason to believe he would go beyond cessation of nuclear weapons testing.

Trump should focus on concessions that his counterpart in Pyongyang might be expected to consider. To expect that Kim would surrender his most meaningful source of national and international power is foolhardy.

Watch: Trump’s ‘art of the deal’ on North Korea summit

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For the United States and South Korea, Japan and other allies, negotiations with North Korea should be oriented towards the struggles of “mind over mind”. As historian F.E. Adcock wrote in The Greek and Macedonian Art of War, “the highest achievements of the Greek art of war are more to be found in the triumph of mind over mind, than in the triumph of mind over matter.”
If the US calculates that its North Korean counterpart is not fully rational, incentives to undertake a military pre-emption could become more compelling

Prospective diplomatic contests should be less about curtailing specific North Korean weapons systems than about diminishing overall enemy threats from Pyongyang. Predictably, each side, as long as it remains rational, will seek viable forms of “escalation dominance”. Washington and Pyongyang will each strive to control the pace of escalation without endangering its own prospects for national security.

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