Opinion | Trump tariffs delay should be met with cautious optimism

President Donald Trump’s decision to delay an increase in tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese goods set for Friday is open to interpretation. Hopes of a positive outcome to trade war negotiations have been boosted by Trump’s tweet that there has been “substantial progress” in China-United States talks on important structural issues and that, if it continues, the US side would plan for a new summit with President Xi Jinping to “conclude an agreement”.

Trump’s claim of progress on “important structural issues”, including intellectual property protection, technology transfer, agriculture and services among many other issues, echoed an earlier statement by Vice-Premier Liu He, Xi’s personal envoy in the latest round of talks in Washington. Liu said the two sides had made positive progress in the same areas, as well as the trade imbalance, and that a deal was “very likely”.

Donald Trump to delay extra tariffs on Chinese imports

However, implementation and enforcement of any agreement remain problematic. It must also be said that there is little of substance in unofficial information from the Chinese side so far to spell out progress on difficult structural issues. But that kind of talk from Liu and Trump, rather than an ongoing war of words, is music to the ears of a world anxious at the prospect of a deepening trade conflict between the two great economic powers.

Politically, the delay in the planned tariff increase suits both sides. For Trump, showing his trademark brinkmanship negotiating style, an agreement with China would not only keep a key election promise but also avoid disruption to the US economy from an all-out trade war that could take time to undo and harm a re-election bid.

For Xi, a delay to tariff increases, along with a positive spin on negotiations from both sides, defuses a volatile issue little more than a week before the annual session of the National People’s Congress for 10 days from March 5.

Domestic politics aside, however, there is a lot to be more optimistic about in the latest developments, from Trump and Liu talking of progress on meaningful reform, to Trump saying more than once he is looking forward to meeting Xi at his Florida resort of Mar-a-Lago next month, and to the personal warmth between the two leaders projected in a video of a meeting between Trump, Liu and the Chinese delegation. A highlight was a message from Xi read out by an interpreter reciprocating similar sentiments in Lunar New Year greetings from Trump.