Opinion | Rival leaders need to play safe in Kashmir

If there is a rise in tension between two nations that is bound to have China and the United States singing from the same hymn sheet before it gets out of hand, it is that between arch-rivals India and Pakistan. It is testament to the unease generated by the most recent military confrontation between the nuclear-armed neighbours that Beijing and Washington have led a global chorus of calls for restraint from both sides, notwithstanding their own strategic rivalry in the subcontinent.

Wednesday’s clash, in which each country claimed to have shot down the other’s warplanes, was the most serious incident yet since a bombing in the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir, masterminded by Pakistan-based militants, killed 40 Indian soldiers on February 14. New Delhi blamed the attack on Jaish-e-Mohammed and not for the first time accused Islamabad of cultivating such groups. Pakistan denies it, but Prime Minister Imran Khan says it is ready to cooperate in the fight against terrorism. It is a welcome sign that common sense may prevail after Khan promised to release a captured Indian pilot as a “peace gesture” to defuse tension.

Anger over the heavy toll of Indian soldiers is understandable, but an air attack on an alleged terrorist base deep inside a neighbour’s sovereign territory raises issues of its own. Domestic politics complicate them. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is keen to project a strong image ahead of coming elections, and he has accused Pakistan of trying to stunt his country’s economic growth. Despite an imbalance of conventional military forces that favours India, Khan played to militant nationalism when he warned that return of the airman should not be taken as a sign of weakness. Given the unthinkable risks in prolonged conflict, the leaders of both countries must ensure that they lead, and are not led by, public sentiment and weigh their actions carefully to avoid aggravating a delicate situation.