My TakeHong Kong localists hope for destabilising trade deal for China

When you live long enough, you often get a strong sense of déjà vu from world events. Take America’s trade disputes. In the 1980s, it was the Nichibei economy, the symbiotic relationship between Japan and the United States. In the early 21st century, it was Chimerica, the symbiotic economic relationship between China and the US. But when such a relationship no longer suits its interests, America is ever ready to throw its partner under the bus – and blames them for its misfortunes.

In Hong Kong, yellow-ribbon (anti-government) blogs, social media and newspapers are practically cheering for the Americans to crush the Chinese with their trade war; best if it leads to a regime collapse in Beijing. The more sophisticated talk about a “Plaza Accord” for China in the event of a trade deal. The original accord of 1985 led to prolonged low growth and deflation, better known as Japan’s “lost decades”.

But, so their yellow-ribbon reasoning goes, China doesn’t have comparable social safety, stability and cohesion as Japan. A prolonged Chinese economic slowdown will lead to widespread social disturbances, riots, and perhaps even regime change. However unlikely this scenario, though, it’s puzzling why anyone in Hong Kong would wish it when they couldn’t possibly benefit.

Nichibei was popularised in a 1985 article in The Economist. As explained by the late Princeton political scientist Robert Gilpin, Japan had high savings rates and an export-driven economy. Americans didn’t save enough and were living beyond their means.

Japan had a dire need for a big foreign market for its products and surplus capital, to keep down domestic unemployment. It became America’s greatest creditor and holder of treasury bonds, and helped push down borrowing costs for Americans.

But Washington was eventually alarmed by the massive trade imbalances and federal deficit, and demanded change: hence the Plaza Accord.