Inclusive approach is needed to find a way out of the Brexit mess
- There is a chance Theresa May’s deal to withdraw Britain from the EU will be approved by parliament on Tuesday. But this is no longer the best outcome
If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again. British Prime Minister Theresa May is set to do just that as she attempts, once more, to push through her damaged and discredited Brexit deal. There is still a chance she may succeed. But after two defeats for the plan in parliament and sharp divisions within her cabinet starkly exposed, a new approach is needed. A Brexit reset, as it has been dubbed, is required to forge a new path and build a consensus both in parliament and among the people.
But first, we are likely to see a third attempt by May to secure parliamentary approval for the deal she has agreed with the EU. This is a desperate last roll of the dice by May. The first vote, in January, saw the agreement defeated by a staggering 230 votes. This week, the vote was closer, but the deal was still rejected by 149 votes. In other circumstances, a prime minister suffering such heavy defeats would be forced to resign. But Brexit is different and May is soldiering on. It is expected that she will present her deal to parliament for a third time on Tuesday. If it is approved, Brexit will still be delayed but only for the short period needed to make the necessary arrangements. If the deal is defeated again, Britain’s departure is likely to be deferred for a much longer period – and may not happen at all. It is that threat which might, just, persuade May’s ruling coalition partners, the Democratic Unionist Party, and hardline supporters of Brexit in her own party to fall in line, do a U-turn and support the deal. It could squeak through next week. But this is no longer the best outcome.
The passing of the deal would offer some hope of a much-needed resolution. And it is the only one on the table. But the parliamentary defeats, deep divisions and rowdy debates have demonstrated that the agreement would not provide a sound basis for the future. And that is important, because there would still be much work required. The withdrawal deal is only the beginning. It would need to be followed by a more detailed, complex and difficult agreement on trade and security. A firmer foundation for this is needed.