Opinion | China and Donald Trump both want a trade agreement soon, but it’s far from a done deal

With Trump riding high after the Mueller report, he and China see a need to strike a deal soon. But the US president faces pressure at home to stay tough, and has proven willing to walk away before

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US President Donald Trump takes part in a meeting with China's Vice Premier Liu He in the White House on February 22. Beijing knows, following the conclusion of the Mueller report, that Trump’s chances of re-election have risen, creating increased incentive for an agreement. Photo: AFP

Published: 1:00am, 28 Mar 2019Updated: 4:34am, 28 Mar 2019

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are scheduled to begin a new round of trade negotiations with China in Beijing on Thursday. While a deal is still by no means “in the bag”, there are growing incentives for both sides to cut an agreement at or before June's G20 meeting.

Donald Trump said on Tuesday that “probably one way or the other we’re going to know over the next three to four weeks”, with both sides poring over a reportedly 150-page document, which he said would be an “excellent” agreement.

So this could potentially mean a conclusion before June’s G20, and a Trump-Xi Jinping meeting in April or May, given that the US president has a penchant for ego-boosting summits and is known to ideally want to seal any deal face-to-face with his Chinese counterpart.

The most recent stimulus for a positive conclusion is the Mueller report ’s conclusion last week, which is perceived in many world capitals to have placed Trump in a stronger domestic political position.

With the charge of “collusion” with Russia (but not “obstruction of justice”) apparently found wanting, the report is neither the complete vindication for Trump that the White House suggests, nor the worst-case scenario either. In this context, his prospects of winning a second term are widely seen by Beijing as having risen, thereby providing more incentive for Chinese policymakers to double down now in the trade negotiations.

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