Opinion | China wants unification. What will Taiwan have to give up to keep its freedoms?

Try as I may, I cannot see a path to peaceful China-Taiwan unification any time soon. Nor can I see unification through a Hong Kong-style “one country, two systems” model. That leaves using force, but what kind of unification would an invasion produce?

President Xi Jinping didn't mince words in January when he said China’s sacred mission of unification could no longer be left to future generations. He offered the carrot of a Hong Kong model but threatened the stick of force. That threat was on vivid display last week when two mainland warplanes deliberately intruded into Taiwanese airspace.

Is there a third, mutually acceptable, unification option? Xi didn’t offer one. I'm no China-Taiwan expert but it doesn't take one to know unification Hong Kong-style is a dead end. It went belly-up soon after Xi spoke when Taiwan’s two major political parties rejected it outright.

Most Taiwanese, and even Hongkongers, must have concluded that Xi was either clueless about public sentiment in Taiwan or, more likely, his Hong Kong model offer was meant for a domestic and Hong Kong audience: that “one country, two systems” is working just fine.

Is it? Perhaps, in a more compliant Macau. But in Hong Kong, “one country, two systems” is either a success or unravelling fast, depending on who you ask in our polarised society. We still have an independent judiciary, uncensored internet, free speech, a free media, and a vocal opposition in our legislature. But recent years have also seen pressure on the judiciary through Basic Law interpretations by China’s parliament, a Beijing-drawn red line on free speech about Hong Kong independence, the banning of a political party, the expulsion of a foreign journalist, and a weakened opposition after the disqualification of six legislators and the banning of others from becoming election candidates.