From stocks and bonds to currencies, a sizzling first quarter can mean only one thing – tougher times around the corner
- After a bruising end to 2018, the solid performances in the financial markets in the past three months – for the most part – were perhaps not surprising. Just don’t expect them to last
Nor would it be right to skip mention of one of the most interesting investment quarters in this economic cycle – for the bruising tackles and the breathtaking sidesteps of the game have been reflected in the emotional turbulence of the financial markets in the past three months.
The quarter kicked off with very low expectations. The world equity index had fallen 14 per cent in the last quarter of 2018, with most of that coming in the days before Christmas. March, however, ended with the US S&P 500 index up 14 per cent alone – only 3.3 per cent below the all-time high set in September last year.
The star of the season was China, as the Shanghai Stock Exchange put 597 points on the board; that’s nearly 24 per cent. Admittedly that was after the player had had a long bout of serious injury, falling 4 per cent in 2018, and a whole 52 per cent from its peak in 2015. The team was well coached in the latter part of 2018 by the People’s Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance, which provided the energy for a turnaround at the grass-roots level.
