R.I.P. Pax Americana under Donald Trump’s destructive rule by tweet and his ‘America first’ policy
- The US president’s unpredictability is dangerous in an increasingly unstable world. Germany and Japan, running trade surpluses with the US, are not safe. And multilateralism is in crisis in Europe, though the Europeans should know better
Former White House adviser Steve Bannon warns that a rejuvenated Trump is set to “go full animal” on enemies. Trump is clearly warming up as he threatens to retaliate against “treasonous” opponents.
He has been condemned by the House for seeking to rip up what remains of Barack Obama’s health care programme, never mind that millions of Americans, especially those with pre-existing conditions, could be left without health insurance.
His mission is to remake the world in his own image. US Vice-President Mike Pence, who had previously accused China of disregarding “the laws and norms that have kept the world safe and prosperous for more than half a century”, gave an account of the gospel of Trump at the Munich Security Conference.
What a vicious and arrogant deity, smashing norms and international laws. Trump is slaughtering Pax Americana, the ideal of a peaceful world where America led like-minded democracies. But in his strident “America first” policy, he evidently expects obedience and obeisance even as he smites America’s long-standing allies.
He has never said a bad word about Vladimir Putin. When evidence piled up around Russian interference in US elections, Trump said Putin had told him it wasn’t so, and he preferred Putin’s word over his intelligence chiefs’ evidence.
Germany’s Angela Merkel, Japan’s Shinzo Abe, South Korea’s Moon Jae-in, like Xi, rule countries that run substantial trade surpluses with the US, which vex Trump. The US president refuses to let the facts get in the way of his fury, so German and Japanese carmakers, which employ tens of thousands of Americans in America, are in his sights.
It’s tough being a traditional ally of the US, especially if you host US troops. There are reports that the president wants these countries – more than 70 of them, including Germany, Japan and South Korea, host nearly 800 US military bases – to pay the full costs, plus 50 per cent. But the Pentagon denies that it has “cost plus 50” plans.
For the rest of the world, it is not so easy. The US is still the only superpower, with the largest economy and global reach, even though its grip is faltering.
But populists and tribalists are spreading throughout Europe. In France, Emmanuel Macron is struggling against populist “gilets jaunes”.
Europe rings with uncomfortable echoes of the nationalism that preceded the first world war, when millions sleepwalked into bloody conflict.
Lamentably, modern Europeans fail to understand how little the rest of the world cares if they pursue their tribal ways, yet how powerful they might be, morally, economically and politically, if they pursue a united rules-based polity.
That was the point of setting up the European Union, when Europe realised settling arguments with war was untenable. Today’s world is ever more dangerous. There are flashpoints, grievances and old sores. Some new powers, flexing their nuclear muscles, are wildly ambitious.
At the security conference, Merkel advocated multilateralism – “putting yourself in the other person's shoes … trying to forge win-win situations, I am firmly convinced that this is better than trying to solve all of these issues alone on your own”.
But she is increasingly a voice crying in the wilderness, even in her own country.
Kevin Rafferty has reported from the US for 45 years and under nine presidents