As the South China Sea dispute heats up, China must not belittle Duterte’s hand of friendship

To peacefully coexist with its neighbours in Southeast Asia, China should not browbeat them into submission, even if it is in a position to do so. Snubbing the Philippine president’s friendly overtures would send the wrong message

Tim Collard

Published: 11:00am, 10 Apr 2019

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One of the more successful regional relationships that China has pursued in the past few years is with the Philippines. Before Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was elected in May 2016, he had for several months been the front runner in the contest and concerns had been expressed among Filipinos that Duterte’s established style – he was known as a mercurial character, similar to US President Donald Trump – might lead to confrontation, particularly with China.

At the time, the Permanent Court of Arbitration was considering a case brought by the Philippines under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) questioning the legality of China’s “nine-dash line” claim to sovereignty in the South China Sea. China refused to participate in the process. In July 2016, with Duterte already elected president, the court ruled in favour of the Philippines, a judgment that Beijing declared invalid.

Duterte, however, adopted a wholly conciliatory approach. He said he had no intention of acting on the judgment and announced the desire to align the Philippines internationally with China and Russia, despite the existence of a long-standing treaty of friendship with the United States.

This was something of an exaggeration, but it highlighted an intention to steer a neutral course on territorial issues in the South China Sea. For the first 2½ years of Duterte’s presidency, peace has reigned, and a number of cooperative ventures have been mooted under China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

However, the underlying problems have not gone away. In the first three months of 2019, the Philippine armed forces say they have observed 600 Chinese naval vessels circling Thitu Island, known in the Philippines as Pagasa, which the Philippines claims as part of its territory.

Philippine Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin has made repeated representations to China and, on April 4, the Department of Foreign Affairs issued a public statement declaring Chinese naval activities around Thitu Island “illegal”. “Such actions when not repudiated by the Chinese government are deemed to have been adopted by it,” the statement said, placing the blame squarely on the Chinese government. This raises tensions between the two nations as high as they have ever been.

Assuming that China will not back down, what can the Philippines do in practice? The Philippine navy is not in a position to confront China head-on. Duterte has thus been pushed into a tight corner and has characteristically resorted to fighting talk, while maintaining a commitment to friendly relations.

“I’m trying to tell China, Pagasa is ours,” he said in a speech on April 4, “so let us be friends, but do not touch Pagasa Island and the rest. Otherwise, things would be different.” He emphasised that “this is not a warning, this is just a word of advice to my friends, because China is our friend”.

‘US will remain our only military ally,’ says Philippine foreign chief

The Philippines has been prepared to take a relaxed approach to Chinese activities on unoccupied islands, but national pride will not permit Filipino armed forces to be shoved aside. “I will not plead or beg,” Duterte went on, “but I’m just telling you to lay off Pagasa, because I have soldiers there,” he said. “If you touch it, that’s another story. Then I will tell my soldiers ‘prepare for suicide missions’.”

Filipino soldiers stand to attention near a Philippine flag at Thitu Island in the South China Sea on April 21, 2017. The Philippine’s military said it has observed hundreds of Chinese naval vessels circling the island over the past three months. Photo: Reuters

That last line looks extremely alarming and should perhaps not be taken too literally: nothing in the military history of the Philippines suggests that “suicide missions” have ever been part of military planning. But a serious point is being made here. It cannot be denied that China possesses overwhelming military superiority in the region, especially as, even if the US were prepared to come to the aid of the Philippines, any act of war would require a tough debate over Congressional approval.

The only conceivable defence policy for China’s smaller neighbours would involve some kind of asymmetrical warfare, which might take many forms – Duterte just mentioned the most spectacular of them, which is very much his style.

China must learn from the US’ mistakes in Southeast Asia

But assuming, as one must if matters do not escalate out of control, that China has no wish to start a conflict, it is important to look at the medium-term political implications of the latest development. Duterte remains highly popular in the Philippines, where – despite Western criticism – he is regarded as a strong national leader. He has also committed himself to the principle of friendship with China and rejected too-close alignment with the US.

Chinese Navy Rear Admiral Xu Haihua (centre) receives a lei from a Philippine navy officer after a Chinese guided-missile frigate docked at Manila’s South Harbor for a four-day port call on January 17, 2019. Photo: AP

A policy of peaceful coexistence with the countries of Southeast Asia will require partners who China can work with. It would be a mistake to alienate Duterte, who has offered China the hand of friendship freely and not under duress.

Of course, China can browbeat most of its smaller neighbours but that does not augur well for the future. If the region comes to fear that expressions of friendship with China will be seen as weakness and attract aggressive behaviour from the regional giant, it will only increase tensions in the long term and may lead to the involvement of other major powers. China would do well to show the Philippine president a bit of respect.

Tim Collard is a former British diplomat specialising in China. He spent nine years as an analyst in Beijing