The murky world of behind-the-scenes diplomacy is such that there is uncertainty as to what prompted China to drop its objection to having the leader of a militant group behind a bombing that brought India and Pakistan to the brink of war declared a terrorist. Pressure from the United States over its trade row, a need for allies to counter the American waiving of sanctions against Iran, international doubts about Beijing’s commitment to fighting terrorism, and the advantages of Indian involvement in the “Belt and Road Initiative” could be among reasons. There is no doubt about the benefits, though – not only has Pakistani Masood Azhar of Jaish-e-Mohammed been added to a
United Nations Security Council sanctions list, but tense Chinese and Indian relations are likely to improve. It is what the region needs amid concerns about economic growth and security.
India has blamed Azhar and his Islamist group for a string of attacks on its territory from Pakistan since 2001, each time heightening border tensions between the arch-enemy nations. Jaish-e-Mohammed was put on a UN terrorism list and Indian and Western security analysts contend it has close links to Pakistani intelligence services. China is Pakistan’s closest ally and its blocking four times of efforts to have the leader’s movements and assets restricted under a UN terrorism sanctions list on the grounds that he did not meet the council’s requirements to be a terrorist was at odds with its pledges to cooperate on fighting global extremism. The killing of
40 Indian security police in February in a suicide bombing in the disputed Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir that was claimed by the group seems to have turned the tide; not only did Beijing and Islamabad join the global condemnation, but the international pressure for Chinese action was ratcheted up.
The UN’s move against Azhar is largely symbolic – he is not known to travel widely or have assets outside Pakistan. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in the midst of a national election, is portraying Beijing’s decision as a victory and no doubt hopes it will help his re-election chances. Diplomatically and economically, it has the potential to be of great benefit to China and India.
It removes a stumbling block to plans for Modi to soon visit China. He refused to attend the recent Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, his nationalist government seeing the infrastructure scheme as a geopolitical threat. Chances of Indian involvement have now been increased. Beijing can now also count on greater international cooperation to ensure peace and security along the land and sea routes of the scheme, put in doubt by the threat of terrorist groups. Whether diplomatic or strategic, Beijing has made a welcome move.
