With the rest of the world enthralled with the escalation of China-United States trade and tech wars, the Middle East is drifting closer to the precipice of armed conflict between the US and Iran that could easily be sparked by accident, miscalculation or overreaction. An American aircraft-carrier strike group has been dispatched to the Persian Gulf, along with B-52 bombers, to defend US interests. Despite scepticism over a lack of evidence for claims that Iran poses a threat to the US and its allies, mixed signals from the US side have done little to ease concerns.

According to administration officials, President Donald Trump has told his acting defence secretary he does not want a war with Iran. That seems to send a message to hawkish aides such as National Security Adviser John Bolton, who has referred to a number of “troubling and escalatory indications and warnings” and says any attack on America or its allies “will be met with unrelenting force”. The US central command says a statement by a British general that there has been no increased threat from Iranian-backed forces such as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria runs counter to credible threats.

Trump, who condemned the Iranian nuclear deal for its temporary nature and for not curbing missile development and destabilising activities abroad, has discounted a report that the US had updated plans for sending up to 120,000 troops to counter Iran if it attacked US forces, but then added: “Would I do it? Absolutely.”