Populists and nationalists had high hopes for big gains in the
European Union parliamentary elections. Voters knew that a substantial swing to the extremes of the political spectrum would threaten the European project and turned out in force to protect unity. They succeeded; although the
main centrist parties lost their combined majority, alliances with like-minded pro-EU groups will ensure a hold on power. But the creeping fragmentation also has to serve as a warning that there can be no let-up in efforts to reform and renew Europe.
Centrist leaders such as
France’s Emmanuel Macron and
Germany’s Angela Merkel cast the election as being about the EU’s destiny. Their concerns mobilised voters and the turnout of 50.9 per cent was the highest since 1994. Populists had been making gains in national elections across the 28-member EU and a low turnout would have been to their advantage. They still fared well in France, Italy, Hungary and elsewhere, but not to the degree that had been anticipated, and in some cases even did worse than expected.
Results for the far-right in Germany and Austria were lower than for national elections in 2017 and counterparts in Denmark, the Netherlands and Spain also faltered. Their best showings were in France and
Italy, but even there, the forecast gains did not materialise. Flag-bearer Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister, had envisaged an alliance of 13 parties to take charge of the parliament and although his League was top in his country, continent-wide, populists and nationalists are likely to take only 170 of the 751 seats. While Nigel Farage’s new
Brexit Party took first place in
Britain and the ruling Conservatives and opposition Labour fared poorly, the outcome is unlikely to impact EU policies – and especially so with a leadership race under way following Prime Minister Theresa May’s announcement that she is stepping down and the scheduled withdrawal of the nation from the EU on October 31.
Greens and liberals made substantial gains and it is to them that the centre-right European People’s Party, which remains the largest single bloc, is likely to turn for partners. Concerns about economic growth, the business environment, climate change and pollution have mobilised voters and will need attention. The fragmentation that has resulted from identity politics will increase the challenge of choosing new presidents for the European Commission and parliament.
Europe’s populists will remain dedicated to undermining the EU. They want to curtail the authority of Brussels, erode the democracy and freedoms it espouses and have more countries follow in the steps of Britain. Voters have given the EU mixed messages; its next leaders have to meet their needs while reforming the union to ensure its growth and strength.
