Editorial | Importation of labour cannot be ruled out if jobs shortfall persists

Hong Kong has been warned of serious manpower shortfalls and mismatches again. If a government study is anything to go by, there will be a shortage of more than a quarter of a million workers by 2027, up from the 2014 forecast of 118,000 by 2022. Only time will tell whether officials have got the numbers right. But the projections seem too disturbing to be ignored.

There are those who dismiss the forecast as just another government attempt to drum up support for importing foreign workers. Even without massive labour importation, our economy seems to get by without problems. The discrepancy between the previous forecast and the reality means studies are often taken with a pinch of salt.

Like in many expanding economies, labour shortages and mismatches are common challenges. We cannot just sit back and do nothing. There have been growing concerns over an oversupply of university graduates in the labour market. Between 2007 and 2017, the number of workers with a degree jumped by almost 60 per cent to 1.08 million, according to political group New Century Forum. The graduates accounted for one-third of the workforce, up from 12.4 per cent in 1997. But the jobs that command such a level only rose by 18 per cent to 1.44 million.

While there still seems to be more than enough jobs for graduates, a mismatch follows when job experience and other requirements are taken into account. That is probably why fresh graduates are facing more difficulties in getting the right job and are forced to take up employment at a lower level. According to government forecasts, there will be 16,300 more postgraduate-level workers than needed by 2027. But at the same time, there will also be a general shortfall of those with an education level between junior secondary and university degree.

The mismatch may be addressed through retraining, but this is easier said than done, especially when educated workers are forced to take lower-level jobs. It is not only a waste of education resources; the lack of upward mobility may also lead to social grievances and instability. A critical assessment of the education system is necessary to address the imbalance in the long run.

Meanwhile, we should be prepared to tackle labour shortages in individual sectors. Take residential care for the disabled and elderly. Officials are studying whether the crunch can be addressed through wage adjustments. More details will be available in the coming weeks. If there are genuine difficulties in recruitment, importation is inevitably an option. As long as there is a well thought-out mechanism to protect the interests of local workers and to guard against abuses, there is no reason why we should not open the door wider to foreign workers.