Why nuclear energy will fuel power-hungry China’s dreams of national rejuvenation
Wenyuan Wu says given China’s pressing energy needs and its drive to reduce carbon emissions, the country has no choice but to invest heavily in nuclear power
In early June, China National Nuclear Corporation reached two deals with its Russian counterpart Rosatom for four nuclear power units at the Xudabao and Tianwan plants. The deals, which feature cutting-edge reactors, showcase China’s determination to achieve its goal of doubling nuclear capacity by 2040, even if this requires importing technology.
China is the world’s largest consumer and producer of primary energy, and discussions about its energy sector often portray a stark choice between fossil fuels (especially coal) and renewables, a dichotomy that overlooks a key facet of Beijing’s energy strategy – nuclear power.
This experience seems to have soured Beijing’s willingness to continue banking on French know-how for its nuclear needs. Consequently, another Areva project, a long-planned nuclear waste reprocessing plant, now seems unlikely to materialise.
While the AP1000 and EPR reactors have since been successfully connected to the Chinese grid, the problems have created a seemingly conflicting narrative surrounding China’s stance on nuclear energy: bold government proclamations and planning on one hand, and financial and technical complications on the other. Nevertheless, the country’s energy needs are so great and its need to decarbonise so urgent that China has no choice but to continue developing nuclear power alongside renewables.
Under these circumstances, Beijing’s decision to sign the US$3.1-billion Rosatom deal signals a strategic shift away from traditional Western nuclear suppliers. In so doing, China follows in the footsteps of many other countries hoping to build nuclear capacity. The Russian VVER 1200 reactors are the most exported model globally and sport a greater capacity than the next most popular design. The agreement also effectively ended a multi-year freeze on new plants, indicating that China considers its energy transition to be more likely to succeed with new partners.
After all, nuclear energy occupies a pivotal position in Beijing’s simultaneous search for energy security and decarbonisation because of its carbon neutrality and cost-effectiveness: at about 420 renminbi per 1000 kWh, nuclear power is much cheaper than renewables, on a par with coal-fired power. Under the Sustainable Development Scenario, investment in nuclear plants is projected to increase 24 per cent in the next 12 years – faster than investment in natural gas and renewables.
There is tremendous room for the Chinese nuclear energy sector to grow. Nuclear power provides a mere 4.4 per cent of electricity in China. In 2016, the US’ nuclear energy consumption was 191.8 million tons of oil equivalent, while China’s was 48.2 million tons.
Chinese electricity demand is projected to grow 2.5 per cent by 2020, coupled with a 7.5 per cent rise in residential demand in China’s least-developed regions.
China has its work cut out, so Beijing’s willingness to diversify its foreign suppliers and draw technology from Canada and Russia, in spite of technical issues impacting individual projects, is understandable.
If the Chinese government hopes to achieve its goal of building 88GW of nuclear capacity, constituting 15 to 25 per cent of the national energy mix by 2020, it will need to build partnerships with a broader range of nuclear innovators. The huge potential for expansion, combined with the issue of technical obstacles, means China will need to be aggressive in advancing technological know-how and expediting carbon dioxide emission reductions.
Wenyuan Wu holds a PhD in international studies from the University of Miami. Her research covers governance and energy reform issues in China, the United States and Latin America