China shouldn’t bet on Trump’s voters deserting him when the trade war takes it toll
Robert Delaney says the Chinese trade war strategy of targeting states that voted for Trump with retaliatory tariffs ahead of the midterm elections may backfire - Trump’s voters love the controversy he generates and may flock to him again
The targets also include US ginseng, which comes from Wisconsin. The Midwestern state’s election night result in 2016 delivered a shock to the Democrats that many still haven’t recovered from. Hillary Clinton’s loss in a state that had not gone to a Republican presidential candidate since 1984 showed how badly voters there wanted a departure from politics as usual.
Beijing is hoping that a dose of economic pain will show these voters, and those in swing states, that Trump was the wrong solution to their grievances.
The pressure caused by the loss of a lucrative export market will, the logic goes, lead to losses for Trump’s Republican party in November’s midterm elections, undercutting Trump’s ability to wage trade wars.
But what if Beijing is wrong? Chinese officials have already miscalculated by not realising how different the Trump White House is from every administration since Richard Nixon’s.
Trump was the first US president to understand that Beijing would never follow through with significant economic reforms without a fight, and for this he deserves credit.
Watch: ‘Biggest trade war in economic history’ begins between US and China
China will need this strategy of international goodwill because, aside from misreading the White House, its leadership also underestimates the strength of Trump’s base, just as most American political pundits did in 2016.
Aided by a hyper-partisan media landscape that did not exist a generation ago, Trump has turned American morality on its head. The successful inherit the earth, regardless of how the gains were achieved.
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Since the 1980s, white, working-class voters have consistently been more supportive of Republicans than Democrats even though the Republicans’ economic agenda – including union busting and public school funding cuts – has been at odds with working-class interests.
Trump will frame China’s targeted tariffs as an attack on America first, and his supporters are more likely to close ranks than change their political stripes.
Robert Delaney is the South China Morning Post's US bureau chief, based in New York