At Apec, there’ll be no escaping China’s growing influence in the Pacific
David Dodwell says Papua New Guinea’s hosting of Apec leaders next month, including Xi Jinping, will shine the spotlight on China’s growing footprint in a region that has long been home to the ‘great game’ of geopolitical jockeying
In just a month’s time, Peter O’Neill’s government in Papua New Guinea will host the biggest diplomatic event of its 43-year life – the meeting of leaders from the 21 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) economies.
The poorest and least developed of all the Apec economies, this elemental country of just 8 million people boasts more than 820 distinct languages, and its high-mountain rainforests are still home to dozens of “uncontacted” tribal communities. North of Australia, and making up the eastern end of the string of islands that make up Indonesia, it tapers off into the Pacific Islands and the Pacific’s ring of fire.
The unprecedented challenge of hosting the thousands of regional leaders in its tiny capital, Port Moresby, has obsessed the country’s leaders for the past four years – as it has leaders in Australia, who have provided huge financial support. Cruise ships are being brought in to deal with the shortage of hotel rooms.
One of Papua New Guinea’s leading “sherpas” responsible for preparing for the year of hosting Apec proudly but nervously showed me four years ago a huge tattoo consuming his right arm: “In God I Trust – Apec PNG 2018”. He said then: “Whether we succeed or fail, it will be a year I will never be able to forget.” Now is his day of reckoning.
Most will never have heard of the Pacific Islands Forum, or PIF, as it is known in the acronymic world of Apec. Putting on one side Australia and New Zealand, which account for about 97 per cent of the gross domestic product of the grouping, the Pacific Islands Forum clusters a further 16 of the tiniest and least-noticed economies in the world.
Most will know of Fiji, Samoa and Tonga, if only for the formidable Rugby Sevens teams they send to Hong Kong every spring. But Kiribati? Nauru? Tuvalu? Vanuatu? The Cook Islands? Palau? Tiny Niue has just 1,600 citizens, a GDP last counted in 2003 at US$10 million, and might not even exist by the end of the century if global warming continues to lift sea levels.
So why the sudden fuss to hold a Pacific Islands Forum meeting? The first and obvious reason is that if you ignore the “protectorate” powers of Australia and New Zealand, Papua New Guinea is the “big brother” of the grouping’s countries. Its US$21 billion economy accounts for almost half of the combined US$45 billion of the other 15. Papua New Guinea’s hosting of Apec provides a rare opportunity to bring to the table the distinct challenges facing these tiny, remote economies dotted across the Pacific.
But then the problems start. For decades, these tiny Pacific dots have been home to a colonial “great game”. As the UK and the US have diplomatically withdrawn (even the US Pacific Fleet rarely strays down among them) so quasi-colonial oversight has been provided by Australia and New Zealand. France remains a presence through New Caledonia and the French Polynesian islands. As upstart China has begun to show interest, distributing aid and other development funding, so some hackles have risen.
Watch: ‘One China’ explained
At this late stage, it all seems down to my sherpa friend’s arm tattoo: “In God I trust”.
David Dodwell researches and writes about global, regional and Hong Kong challenges from a Hong Kong point of view