Who will benefit most from Carrie Lam’s vision for Hong Kong? Real estate developers, of course

Seemingly unaware of her sliding popularity ratings, Lam has dropped another political bombshell, the “Lantau Tomorrow Vision” plan to build artificial islands in the middle of the sea off Lantau Island. The scale of the project is ridiculous; even former Legislative Council president Jasper Tsang Yok-sing is having trouble getting behind the plan.

To be honest, the public might not actually be against reclamation; however, Lam needs to justify why brownfield sites, farmland and a golf course are lower on her agenda. The proposed artificial island, estimated to be 1,700 hectares, could cost up to HK$500 billion. Factor in the transport links to Hong Kong Island and Tuen Mun, and the bill could run to HK$1 trillion – almost all of Hong Kong’s reserves, excluding delays and budget overruns.

Lam’s announcement of the 1,700-hectare project came before the official Task Force on Land Supply could release the results of its public consultation on options including a 1,000-hectare Lantau reclamation plan. Why has she expanded the project overnight? Because she wants to. It’s as clear as day that mainland China’s construction sector will be the biggest winner. Sure, although infrastructure such as the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge and the Express Rail Link may deliver economic benefits to the city, the actual amount is in doubt.

The policy address also highlights a land sharing scheme. The proposal aims to release the development potential of 1,000 hectares of privately owned farmland in the New Territories. This is another way of benefiting developers.

When Lam was development secretary, she tried to tackle, without success, the problem of unauthorised building works in the New Territories. As chief executive now, she has proposed relaxing restrictions on rooftop solar panels on small houses in the New Territories. This is tantamount to allowing illegal structures.