Opinion | China should simply adapt to fewer births and an ageing society

Paul Yip says government policy alone cannot reverse the trend of a declining fertility rate, while a demographic dividend has its limits. Beijing should focus on raising the quality of its workforce to minimise the economic impact

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Illustration: Timothy Mcevenue. See: www.timothymcevenue.net

Published: 9:01am, 8 Jan 2019Updated: 9:00am, 8 Jan 2019

With 16.8 per cent of its population aged 60 years or above in 2017, projected to rise to 25 per cent by 2030, China is rapidly heading towards becoming an ageing society due to its low fertility rate and improvements in life expectancy. As it is the world’s most populous country – with 1.4 billion people, nearly a fifth of the global population – the impact of China’s ageing on the global economy cannot be underestimated.

The one-child policy, first introduced in 1979 and now effectively scrapped, has contributed to the decline in fertility rate. But to be fair, China’s total fertility rate was already declining before the one-child policy was implemented. Thus, it only accelerated the rate of reduction. Notably, the fertility rate has not rebounded despite the relaxation of the policy a few years ago.

The number of babies born in 2018 is expected to fall below 15 million, 2 million fewer than in 2017. Against this alarming backdrop, some scholars recently called for the removal of all birth controls.

It’s doubtful such a move would be effective, however. In many high-income societies in Asia, the younger generations prefer to have only one child, or no children at all. Having a small family has become the norm in modern China. It is futile to try to reverse these trends by any economic incentive as it is unlikely to be effective or cost-effective.

The total fertility rates in major cities, such as Shanghai and Beijing, were already below one before the policy was eased. Some mainland couples simply chose not to exercise their right of having one child.