Is Hong Kong reaching a tipping point in public anger? The government must tread carefully

Bernard Chan says from calls to build homes on golf course land, to the fuss over tunnel tolls and protests against raising the elderly welfare age limit and mainland shoppers, discontent is festering in Hong Kong, and the government needs to listen

Bernard Chan

Published: 2:00pm, 31 Jan 2019

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Uncertainty is normal. But the state of the world today feels stranger than usual. While the world economy doesn’t look that bad, there is widespread political instability. As the head of tech company Hewlett Packard said recently at the Davos gathering, “we have globalisation and nationalism happening at the same time.”

In the United States, the federal government was shut down for five weeks, from December to January. Hundreds of thousands of workers, some in critical security roles, went unpaid. US society is more divided than ever.

And all this over something that, on the face of it, would strike most outsiders as absurd: namely, President Donald Trump’s plan for a wall along the border with Mexico. And he has warned that another government shutdown might take place before long.

In Europe, the British parliament overwhelmingly struck down the government’s Brexit proposal. The deadline for Brexit is March 29, yet even at this late stage there is no consensus on how Britain will actually exit the EU.

The default will be a no-deal Brexit, which in theory could leave a major economy outside main international trade arrangements. This could do serious damage to businesses in Britain, Europe and beyond – though amazingly no one really knows.

In France, the “yellow vests” movement is resisting President Emmanuel Macron’s reformist agenda. Populists are gaining support elsewhere in Europe. In Brazil, voters have elected a populist president who styles himself on Trump. People in much of the world seem to be angry, and the result is political uncertainty and potential economic volatility.

The trade war will end, but the real battle has only just started

Closer to home, we face the prospects of a slowing Chinese economy and a continuing trade war between China and the US – with possibly serious effects on Hong Kong. Increasingly, the danger is not just tariffs, but generally deteriorating relations between China and many Western nations. This comes after a long period in which economic inequality has risen in Hong Kong.

Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He (from left), central bank chief Yi Gang and other officials sit down with Trump administration officials for trade negotiations in the Diplomatic Room at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington on January 30. Photo: AFP

Does Hong Kong also have the seeds that grew into populism in the West: losers of globalisation, immigration, a wealth gap and resentment against the elite? Clearly, we do not have exact equivalents of Trump’s support base in the US or the militant protesters in France. And some observers here might think the West, or its political and social systems, are the problem – so Hong Kong has nothing to worry about.

I am not so sure. Less than two years into the current administration, the Hong Kong government is running up against what looks a bit like populist opposition on multiple fronts.

Perhaps the best example is the clamour to build housing on the Hong Kong Golf Club’s courses. As a non-golfer, I am not obsessed with the courses. But I do know that the area would not hold a significant amount of housing and that it has value as open space. The push to use that particular site for housing is driven by resentment rather than sense.

The fuss over cross-harbour tunnel tolls is another example. Everyone knows the current tolls create serious congestion, and raising the price of using the most crowded tunnel would redistribute traffic. Yet lawmakers from all sides – who know very well what the problem is – are now resisting a sensible government proposal to ease the situation.

The raising of the age limit for elderly welfare, which was passed last year, has met with sudden, strong, across-the-board opposition. In recent weeks, we have also seen protests in particular districts against the influx of mainland shoppers. This may be because of surging visitor numbers. But it also looks like a trend, where protests in one place encourage residents in other districts to do the same.

Yes, we have district elections coming up this year, and it is hardly new for the Hong Kong government to find itself on the defensive. It is also hard to imagine Hongkongers imitating Trump supporters’ outrage at the mainstream media or fear of ethnic minorities.

But we should take note of what has happened in Western and other countries in recent years. If life is going to get harder or at least more uncertain in the year ahead, cynicism and anger could spread unexpectedly through the community. This is a time for the government to be especially cautious and to carefully listen and respond to public opinion.

Bernard Chan is convenor of Hong Kong’s Executive Council

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Is Hong Kong heading for a populist revolt?

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