Ignore the rhetoric, US-China trade benefits both countries, and businesses have more to lose than gain from conflict
Edward Tse says war between China and the US isn’t inevitable, and the two nations can avoid falling into the Thucydides Trap by focusing on shared goals
Both the outcome of the Peloponnesian wars and basic economics suggest that any such conflict would result in the worst kind of disruption to the global economy. However, the world is a very different place from ancient Greece and pre-second-world-war era.
Today, all-out war between large powers have become unlikely as the nature of the economy has changed and present-day military technology would make it extremely difficult to replicate the second world war feats. Moreover, in an interconnected world, the damage inflicted by a major war between large powers would go beyond that to the two countries alone.
Watch: Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision of China’s place in the world
These entrepreneurs look to the West, especially the US west coast, for inspiration, with Tencent being the second-largest foreign investor in the US tech industry. Meanwhile, many US venture funds such as Sequoia Capital and IDG Capital have seen high returns on their investment in Chinese tech companies.
Watch: What makes Tencent such a tech goliath?
Preventing a trade war also requires a willingness to collaborate. Kishore Mahbubani, Singapore’s former ambassador to the United Nations, urges rational economic argument in place of political polarisation and simplistic ideology to cool the brewing trade war. The cold war rhetoric of blaming China for the US trade deficit dismisses how close integration with China greatly benefits the US economy.
First, exports to China bring jobs and opportunities for many, including Americans. According to a report prepared for the US-China Business Council, US goods and services to China were worth US$165 billion in 2015, accounting for 7.3 per cent of all US exports and about 1 per cent of US GDP. Because China is deeply integrated into the global supply chain, these figures underestimate the benefit to the US economy since they do not account for re-exported products to China from other countries or the products bought by China’s neighbours under its influence.
Second, US investors also benefit from China’s continued growth at almost 7 per cent per year. The report says 80 per cent of products made in China by US companies were sold in China; if redistributed to shareholders and spent domestically, these profits would support 103,000 jobs and US$11.9 billion to US GDP. Meanwhile, Chinese firms are beginning to invest in the US. The combined effect of China’s direct investment in the US and US affiliates of Chinese firms is estimated to support a total of 104,000 jobs and US$10.8 billion in GDP.
Watch: What a US-China trade war could cost Americans
Third, China’s innovation in business is growing by leaps and bounds but, in general, American businesses have not fully taken advantage of these opportunities. Foreign companies tend to copy and paste their business models without reaching out to their fringes even if those fringes could mean major upside opportunities.
In his book, Return of Marco Polo’s World: War, Strategy and American Interests, the American political adviser Robert Kaplan describes an Asian century in which Eurasia will become the centre of conflict.
Though one cannot ignore the possibility of small-scale military conflict or the escalation of the trade war, it behoves all parties to stay calm and appreciate the importance of stability for mutual benefits. Avoiding the Thucydides Trap requires rationalism and appreciation of dialogue, cooperation and common goals from both sides.
Edward Tse is founder & CEO, Gao Feng Advisory Company, a global strategy and management consulting firm with roots in Greater China. He is also author of China’s Disrupters