How North Korean denuclearisation would be good for China’s national security and global standing
Kristian McGuire says that, apart from the military build-up in Northeast Asia to counter the North Korean threat, China’s ambitions of playing a greater global role should motivate it to push Pyongyang towards giving up its nuclear weapons
Does Beijing need to be concerned about improving US-North Korea relations? If so, what needs to happen to ensure that the budding relationship doesn’t one day threaten China?
With so many decisions to make and interests to safeguard, Chinese officials certainly have their hands full, especially since they are dealing with a number of stakeholders and fluid circumstances.
Since the 1990s, the US and its allies have responded tit for tat to advances in Pyongyang’s weapons programmes, causing great concern to Beijing, which fears that Washington and its security partners’ efforts to counter the North Korea threat are a stalking horse for a China containment campaign.
In August 1999, less than a year after North Korea fired a Taepodong-1 ballistic missile over Japanese territory, the US and Japan agreed to conduct joint research on a ballistic missile defence system that could protect allies from the North’s newly displayed weapons.
However, the joint research programme did not lead to immediate action as, just weeks after it was announced, Pyongyang agreed to suspend testing of its long-range missiles – a self-imposed moratorium that remained in place until North Korea’s foreign ministry declared it null and void in March 2005.
Since 2006, when the North resumed its missile tests and commenced testing nuclear weapons, the US and its East Asian security partners have steadily built up their missile defences.
Advanced radar systems and surface-to-air missiles that Beijing believes might be targeted at Chinese ballistic missiles now dot China’s periphery, from South Korea and Japan in the north to Guam and Taiwan in the south. And more such military assets are being deployed to the region as Washington and its allies hedge against the possibility that the Kim regime will not follow through on its commitment to relinquish its nukes.
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However, playing the spoiler is not in China’s interests. If Beijing is to emerge from the North Korea crisis with a greater sense of security and with its reputation as a responsible world leader intact (if not greatly enhanced), then it must do all it can to ensure its ally denuclearises once and for all.
Kristian McGuire is an independent, Washington-based research analyst and associate editor of Taiwan Security Research. [email protected]