China’s absence in Rimpac maritime war exercise benefits no one, least of all America
Zhou Bo says the US snub will in no way impede China’s military development. Instead, it has deprived both militaries of a needed opportunity to practise together, to avert potential incidents, and raised the political temperature between the two rival powers
Does Rimpac matter for China? The answer is: not really.
This is narcissism. Neither Western arms embargoes nor any American restrictions has proven capable of deterring the awesome progress of the PLA, especially in the past two decades.
Watch: President Xi Jinping’s military plans
The PLA, apart from its own increasingly sophisticated exercises often held off China’s coast, is also conducting more and more joint exercises with other countries. But the most valuable ones are those held with member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), especially Russia.
Since 2002, when China held its first joint exercise with Kyrgyzstan, the SCO member states have taken part in almost annual exercises. In 2005, about 10,000 troops from China and Russia gathered in Shandong peninsula to practise air and naval blockades, an amphibious assault, and occupying a region.
Watch: Chinese military conducts a cross-service drill in June 2018
By disinviting the Chinese navy to Rimpac, the US has not necessarily benefited. First, it loses a routine chance to observe the PLA’s professionalism and technological advances. Secondly, it loses a good opportunity to practise good airmanship and seamanship with the Chinese navy, as set out in the memorandum of understanding on the “rules of behaviour for safety of air and maritime encounters”, which the two countries signed in 2014 to head off potentially dangerous conflict.
This raises two questions. First, how could the strongest navy in the world behave so unprofessionally?
Second, if a Chinese naval vessel meets such an “unprofessional” American naval vessel in an unplanned encounter, how can the Chinese commander distinguish between deliberate provocation and bad seamanship on the American side?
A worst-case scenario is an American warship colliding with a Chinese warship, say, in the South China Sea.
Watch: China redeploys missile systems in South China Sea
This is not impossible. A Chinese J-8 fighter and an American EP-3 aircraft collided in 2001 and the Chinese pilot died. It was not the only stand-off that has occurred; Chinese and American ships have been involved, too.
The fact that Beijing still invited Mattis to visit China after the US withdrew its invitation to China to attend Rimpac 2018 demonstrates both goodwill and self-confidence on the Chinese part.
If one good turn really deserves another, the question is: will the US invite China to attend 2020 Rimpac? Let’s wait and see.
Zhou Bo is an honorary fellow with the PLA Academy of Military Science in China