Trade war raises the spectre of a ‘China collapse’, and Beijing should worry
Deng Yuwen warns that the impact on China’s economy could destabilise a country already dealing with the twin problems of low public trust and unresponsive government bureaucracy. But although change is inevitable, an eruption of public anger is not
The “China collapse theory” was popular in the international community 10 years ago. However, with China becoming the world’s second-largest economy and exerting a growing international influence, despite the chorus of doom, such talk has died down.
Yet, taking the long view, 2018 is shaping up to be a turning point for China. Today the country faces serious internal and external challenges, and is in the midst of a social transformation.
Given the Chinese government’s ability to maintain stability, the transformation is unlikely to be a radical, dramatic rupture. Rather, the change may be cumulative. Like the proverbial frog in a pot of water that’s gradually brought to a boil, by the time people realise a transformation has happened, it will already be in place.
Looking at the changes that have quietly taken place in Chinese society this year, it is obvious that a transformation is gestating.