Japan-India summit highlights how badly both countries need – and need to contain – China
- C. Uday Bhaskar writes that the growing India-Japan partnership must balance its rivalry with and dependence on China to realise the dream of an Asian century
- While both are wary of China’s growing power, India and Japan have a trade dependency on Beijing that the other cannot fill
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To harmonise the contradictory tenor between geo-economic needs and geopolitical and security imperatives – which are often filtered through a nationalist, emotive historical narrative – takes deft balance. This was on display both in Tokyo and Beijing.
Watch: Modi, Abe release joint statement after bilateral talks
Even if not named explicitly, the reference to China is unambiguous and, to work towards this objective, the Abe-Modi statement acknowledged both the relevance of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the role of the US, even while underscoring the “inclusive” nature of the Indo-Pacific.
The statement added: “The two leaders also affirmed that Asean unity and centrality are at the heart of the Indo-Pacific concept, which is inclusive and open to all. They shared willingness to expand concrete cooperation with the US and other partners”.
The two sides also agreed to institute a two-plus-two framework for the defence and foreign ministers of both countries to meet periodically – an arrangement India only has with the US.
Trilateral consultation and engagement between the navies of India, the US and Japan are already in place and a logistics-sharing agreement has been mooted.
Abe and Modi have established a very warm personal relationship and this was reflected in the symbolism of Abe hosting his guest in his country home in Yamanashi – the first time such a personal gesture has been accorded to a visiting leader.
The Abe-Modi synergy has infused the bilateral relationship with distinctive political traction, but an anomaly persists.
Despite the determination of both leaders to impart a strategic depth to the bilateral relationship, and the emphasis on shared security and strategic empathy, the intractable trade imbalance is discernible.
India-Japan bilateral trade declined from US$18.6 billion (2012-13) to US$13.5 billion (2016-17) and no significant defence cooperation has taken place – though the intent is lofty.
In contrast, despite the security dissonance, the comparable Japan-China figure is closer to US$300 billion and total India-China trade amounts to US$85 billion.
Clearly, despite their mutual wariness, the three Asian nations are locked in a complex relationship of interdependence and divergence that spans the spectrum from cooperation to competition and potential confrontation over territoriality.
The core of the Modi and Abe visits is that the realisation of an Asian century will depend on the ability of these three nations to arrive at a modus vivendi over contested issues.
Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar is director of the Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi. [email protected]