As Putin pivots to Asia, will more Russian defence and energy deals be the new normal in the region?
- Dmitriy Frolovskiy says Vladimir Putin’s decision to attend the East Asia Summit signals his determination to diversify Russia’s relationships away from Europe
- Whether Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir will warm to Russia, as the Philippines and Indonesia have recently, remains to be seen
The Russian president’s attendance is already noteworthy in and of itself, given that the Kremlin has typically sent Dmitry Medvedev in his stead since Russia became a full member of the summit in 2011. But whether this higher profile will bring tangible progress for Russia’s Asian outreach remains an open question.
Russia’s policymakers and business community now perceive East Asia in general – and increasingly the Association of Southeast Asian Nation countries in particular – as an outlet to diversify international relationships away from Europe, and more particularly the sanctions hitting the Russian economy.
Having neglected the region in the past, Russia is now having to play catch up to compete with China, the US and Japan. As Putin pointed out in a Bloomberg op-ed published almost exactly a year ago, the share of Russian foreign trade pertaining to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) economies grew from 23 per cent to 31 per cent from 2012-2017. Among the individual Asean countries, that growth has often been even more pronounced.
For example, trade turnover with Vietnam, Russia’s staunchest regional partner reached US$5.2 billion in 2017. This represents the highest level since 1991. Russia is also Hanoi’s second-largest foreign investment destination, bringing in nearly US$3 billion. This growth has been propelled by the Vietnam-Eurasian Economic Union free trade agreement that came into force in late 2016.
As Russian news agency TASS reported last month, the country’s aviation industry is also looking to sell both passenger jets and military helicopters to Indonesia. Russia has also signed a “gift deal” with the Philippines, which still relies mostly on US weapons, to grease the wheels for Russian expansion in the local market.
Defence represents one of two critical fronts for Russia in the region. The other is energy. Russia’s Asean energy exports have grown five times over since 2013. Southeast Asia’s fast-growing economies are obviously important markets for Russian oil and gas but, on cleaner energy fronts, Asean countries also represent growth markets for the Russian nuclear industry.
Watch: Malaysian Prime Minister says he is not anti-China
This could, of course, change. Over his half a century in politics, Mahathir’s world view has focused on trying to address an inherent conflict between Asian and Western values that could make him remarkably appealing to Putin’s own nativist vision. With Russia’s state-run news agency Sputnik News announcing plans to boost its presence in Malaysia, Moscow does still seem to be laying the groundwork for greater cooperation.
Dmitriy Frolovskiy is a political analyst and independent journalist. He is a consultant on policy and strategy, and has written about Russia’s foreign policy