When Xi meets Trump, could the personal touch avert a China-US break-up?
- Drew Thompson says the Chinese president should direct his party to address the issues of fairness and reciprocity that America has raised. The US is determined to compete, but Beijing can still find areas of compromise
China’s decision to briefly embargo rare-earths exports to Japan after the arrest of a Chinese fisherman in disputed waters in 2010 was a wake-up call for hi-tech manufacturers dependent on China as the world’s largest supplier of the critical material.
The Trump administration, from the start, has declared its intent to protect its interests and openly compete with China, while seeking to develop a constructive, results-oriented relationship based on fairness and reciprocity.
China chafes at US efforts to protect its interests, while steadfastly denying that it shares any blame or responsibility for increased tensions or the security dilemma gripping the region, meeting US indignity over years of injustice and lack of reciprocity with its own outrage over a “century of humiliation”. The drama now plays out publicly in multilateral meetings that were formerly known for their boring, scripted platitudes calling for a better world.
There is no chance that a trade deal can be reached in only a few days when there have been no substantive discussions at the working level. The divide is too deep, the positions are too entrenched and the issue is too complex for a fast and simple solution. Besides, at this point, resolving trade differences alone would not create strategic trust or a stable bilateral relationship.
There are, however, glimmers of hope that the meeting of the heads of state of the two largest economies could turn the tide on a turbulent relationship and start a slow path to a modus vivendi, where the two countries can find a way to peacefully coexist.
The Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 will reportedly feature a dinner hosted by Trump – a signature engagement tactic the president uses to take his counterpart’s measure, deepen his understanding of his guest’s perspectives, convey his thoughts and use his charm in an informal setting where he is comfortable and the contours of a future relationship can be mapped.
No one doubts Xi’s power at home or his control and influence over the government. If he comes away satisfied with his engagement with Trump and orders the Communist Party to find areas of compromise and work with US counterparts to stabilise the relationship, China’s bureaucracy would undoubtedly mobilise to the task, and the opportunity to deepen meaningful dialogue on strategic and economic issues could be realised.
While the bilateral relationship is bleak on many levels, the potential of reaching a modus vivendi still exists and is not impossible.
Drew Thompson was the director for China at the US Department of Defence. He is currently a visiting senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. He can be followed on Twitter: @TangAnZhu