China’s economy and Fed policies are again unsettling markets. But don’t expect a turnaround like in 2016
- Nicholas Spiro says that, now as then, concerns about the health of the global economy dominate, but the confluence of factors that stabilised, then lifted, the markets in 2016 is unlikely to come about this year
Is this 2016 all over again? If international investors are having flashbacks to the early months of 2016, one can understand why. Many of the drivers of asset prices three years ago are strikingly similar to the ones that are influencing financial markets today.
The similarities with early 2016 have not been lost on policymakers themselves. In remarks at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association on January 4, Fed chair Jerome Powell cited the China-induced shift in US monetary policy in 2016 as evidence that the central bank can react quickly if external headwinds endanger the US economy. Powell’s dovish comments have been the main catalyst behind the sharp recovery in stock markets since the end of last year, with the benchmark S&P 500 index enjoying its strongest 10-day rally since 2009, according to data from Bloomberg.
The big question, however, is whether the parallels with 2016 will persist in the coming months, which would mean that China’s economy recovers, the Fed keeps rates unchanged and markets enjoy a spectacular rally for the remainder of this year.
While the Fed-China nexus will undoubtedly be a key driver of asset prices this year, there are reasons to believe that 2019 will not be a repeat of 2016. Not only is it unlikely that the two main underpinnings of the 2016 rally – a Fed that refrains from tightening policy and an aggressive stimulus package that quickly turns around China’s economy – will fall into place simultaneously once again, the geopolitical landscape is quite distinct from the one three years ago.
First, it is still unclear whether the Fed will halt its rate-hiking cycle this year. America’s economy, although having recently shown signs of slowing, is expanding at a significantly faster pace than in 2016. What is more, even if the Fed does pause, it will continue to tighten policy by unwinding its balance sheet, a crucial element of stimulus that had yet to be withdrawn in 2016.
Three years ago, the world economy benefited from a purported “Shanghai Accord”. This was the apparent quid pro quo that emerged from the G20 summit in February 2016 in which the Fed agreed to be patient in raising rates while China launched a major stimulus programme. The agreement brought about a sharp fall in the dollar and triggered a fierce rally in markets.
Investors are clamouring for another Shanghai Accord. The absence of one this year is another reason why 2019 is unlikely to be a repeat of 2016.
Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory