How North Korea could be the balm that soothes tensions between China and the US
Cary Huang says a resolution to the problem of a nuclear North Korea would be a diplomatic win that would serve Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un well, and might soften US-China rhetoric on trade, Taiwan and the South China Sea
It would be win-win diplomacy for the United States, China and North Korea if they could work to achieve a peaceful solution to the decade-long dispute over Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s visit to China and his summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week – his fourth in the past 10 months – has raised speculation that his second summit within a year with US President Donald Trump is imminent.
This appears to follow a precedent set last year, when Kim’s meetings with the Chinese leader directly preceded his historic summit with Trump in Singapore in June. Apparently Trump, Kim and Xi all welcome this diplomatic fanfare as they have more to gain than lose from it.
The biggest challenge facing the 35-year-old Kim, whose priority has been maintaining his family’s dynastic rule, is how to save the country’s economy from bankruptcy amid United Nations sanctions.
A meeting with Trump to break the stalemate in the denuclearisation talks is the key to achieving this end. Over the past few months, Pyongyang has demanded that Washington ease sanctions, claiming to have dismantled some of its nuclear facilities.
The White House has refused to budge, pledging to maintain sanctions until Pyongyang has completed the denuclearisation process.
Kim’s most recent trip to Beijing was an effort to win Chinese support for reducing UN sanctions to ease the economic pain at home. Kim devoted a large chunk of his New Year’s address to reiterating his shift in focus from nuclear weapons to rebuilding the North Korean economy.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump shake hands at the conclusion of their meetings in Singapore in June 2018. Photo: AP
For Xi, Kim’s visit came at a time of delicate relations between the US and China, as negotiators from both countries held their latest round of talks in Beijing in an effort to divert a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
Trump has long sought Xi’s help in dealing with Pyongyang, and Kim’s visit highlighted Beijing’s pivotal role on the Korean peninsula. Beijing also has a strong interest in linking North Korea with trade, as Trump has alluded to such trade-offs.
Xi might use his close personal relationship with Kim to portray himself as doing Trump a favour by helping him notch a foreign-policy win. State media seemed to highlight this by reminding the world that Kim’s visit was at Xi’s invitation.
Trump might be as eager to seek a breakthrough at this critical juncture as he is faced with a host of daunting challenges at home and abroad, such as the partial government shutdown over his border wall, the abrupt departure of Defence Secretary James Mattis and Trump’s controversial decision to pull out of Syria.
Progress on the North Korean nuclear impasse might be a great boost to Trump’s campaign for a second term as president. Trump had already declared a win on North Korea after his first summit with Kim. He will make the Korean peninsula a talking point at his rallies should significant headway be made.
The trajectory of global diplomacy in 2019 will hinge on two major events – a possible full-blown US-China trade war and North Korean denuclearisation. Both issues are closely interwoven into the overall relations between the world’s main economic rivals and chief political adversaries.
If Washington and Beijing can cooperate to defuse the decades-old hostility on the Korean peninsula, it will help them work together to solve, or at least soften their rhetoric, on other issues, such as trade, Taiwan and the South China Sea.
A successful resolution to the Korean issue might boost all three leaders’ status at home and their images on the international stage.
It would be a great diplomatic achievement that might be compared to US President Jimmy Carter’s mediation of the Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel, one reason why he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002. That is why leaders can make friends even with foes.
Cary Huang, a senior writer with the South China Morning Post, has been a veteran China affairs columnist since the early 1990s
