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The View
Opinion
Richard Harris

The View | Brexit chaos adds to global risks, but the No 1 worry comes down to economic growth

  • Richard Harris says investors should keep a close eye on the GDP figures of major economies like China and Germany. However Brexit ends, it is already a drag on the struggling Chinese economy, and a slowdown will move the markets

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A construction worker walks by the reflection of a woman eating her lunch in Beijing. China has cut taxes and stepped up spending to help counter the country’s worst slowdown since the global financial crisis, amid a bruising trade war with the US. Photo: AP

There is an academic experiment that demonstrates the “wisdom of crowds”. It consists of placing a large jar of jelly beans on a desk and asking a classroom full of people how many beans are in the jar. Of course, no one has any idea – they have to guess by looking at it. 

The experiment reveals that, even though individual guesses may be wild, the average or median of the many guesses usually results in a remarkably close crowd estimate of the actual number of beans in the jar. This exercise illustrates the wisdom of crowds over the power of a single individual.

For the moment, Brexit is in an infinite legislative loop with no majority for any course of action under the current party system. Yet, the British Parliament is developing a crowd process if recent murmurs are true of backbenchers taking things into their own hands to seek agreement outside the traditional parliamentary and governmental decision-making process.
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It would be a most unconventional way to run the mother of parliaments, which prides itself on having a centuries-old unwritten constitution (Churchill would spin in his grave). But these are unusual times and convention has been shackled. Respect, decorum and protocol have been absent in the House of Commons chamber in recent weeks. We have seen aggressively personal attacks by both junior and senior political figures on the Speaker, John Bercow, from the floor of the House. While respect for the Speaker only recently dimmed; respect for and confidence in the negotiators from Europe vanished over a year ago.

Essentially, this grass-roots process would take the decision-making from one, the prime minister, to determine the optimal solution through the wisdom of crowds. It would be the mechanism that takes the average view of Members of Parliament and draws a consensus as to the best solution for Britain. This answer may be an acceptable Brexit deal, a further delay to Article 50, some kind of deal to handle a no-deal, or indeed a second referendum. The policy itself would almost certainly please no one but it would be workable as the optimal right answer – as per the jelly bean jar.

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