As China’s economic growth engine slows, is its war on pollution losing steam?
- Facing pressures such as the trade war, a global economic slowdown and a decline in domestic consumption, China’s leaders are looking to boost the economy
- Balancing this impulse with environmental protection will be challenging
The data suggests a troubling pattern of China falling behind on its environmental protection targets. The concentration of PM2.5 particles in January rose 8.2 per cent year on year, while overall air pollution levels rose across 337 Chinese cities.
It also includes new pledges, including expediting the phasing out of outdated coal-fired plants, the promotion of ultra-low-emission coal technology and cracking down on substandard diesel vehicles.
Although the plan reaffirms the ministry’s commitment to its “war on pollution”, February’s disappointing results put Beijing’s fine balancing act between protecting economic growth and fulfilling environmental ambitions on full display.
It’s clear that stronger measures are required to turn northern China’s skies blue. The consequences of such poor air quality are hard to overstate – from its depressive effect on life expectancy to smog-induced highway closures in Beijing and Shandong province.
Instead of imposing 2018’s nationwide production cuts of 30 to 50 per cent on heavy industry in 28 northern cities, the ministry exempted a number of aluminium, steel, coking and casting companies from production curbs, and allowed provincial authorities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area to make their own plans to cut production. It also lowered the PM2.5 reduction target from 5 per cent to 3 per cent.
This regulatory flexibility, intended to give some space to local authorities to fine-tune anti-smog measures, has instead allowed heavily polluting industries prevalent in northern China to operate at almost full capacity this winter.
As Shanghai-based analyst Liu Xiaolei commented, only “a very limited number” of aluminium plants were forced to cut back production this season.
As a result of these looser policies, heavy industry production reached record levels in 2018: aluminium exports surged to 552,000 tonnes in January, up 25.5 per cent from a year earlier, while crude steel output set a record of 923 million tonnes in 2018, up 11 per cent from 2017.
Despite the crackdown, many rural residents continue to burn coal, wary of surging utility bills – gas heating can cost an extra 500 yuan (US$75) a month. The removal of coal heaters strained the country’s fledgling natural gas supply and ageing power grid, while expected lay-offs of hundreds of thousands of workers in heavy industries across northern China are putting significant stress on the economy.
Wenyuan Wu holds a PhD in international studies from the University of Miami. Her research covers governance and energy reform issues in China, the United States and Latin America