Opinion | Will US policy on China change if Trump loses the 2020 presidential election, and does Xi Jinping care who will be in the White House?

While China policy is one of the few areas where Democrats and Republicans converge, the trade war divides the field of presidential candidates into moderates who are friendly to free trade and the critics of Beijing’s practices

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Published: 1:00am, 27 Jun 2019Updated: 6:33am, 27 Jun 2019

Last week, US President Donald Trump officially kicked off his re-election campaign with a rally in Orlando, Florida, and this week, 20 Democratic candidates will hold their first debate.

I have seen the United States through 12 presidential administrations and learned to expect the unexpected, whether it be the defeat of seemingly sure-thing candidates like Richard Nixon in 1960 and Hillary Clinton in 2016, or the rise of relative unknowns like Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992.

I know it may seem far too early to be making predictions, but it is not too early to begin examining the potential policies of the individual candidates and how they might engage China.

Trump is the presumed Republican nominee. He faces only one declared Republican challenger in former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld.

Despite the partisan divide over nearly every other issue, both parties seem increasingly convinced a policy of engagement with China in pursuit of liberalisation has been folly.

The Democratic field is much more complicated; nearly two dozen candidates have announced they will run, of whom 20 have qualified for the primary debate.

The diverse field includes senators (Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand, Michael Bennet), past and present former members of the House (Tulsi Gabbard, Tim Ryan, Eric Swalwell, John Delaney, Beto O'Rourke), governors (Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper), mayors (Pete Butteigeig, Bill de Blasio), a businessman (Andrew Yang) and an author (Marianne Williamson).

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