Opinion | Hong Kong’s political instability means 2020 could be the endgame for ‘one country, two systems’

The current mass protests and rumbles in the financial sector echo the loss of faith that preceded the handover. Any threat to Hong Kong’s autonomy could set off a series of events that leads to the city’s demise

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Anti-extradition bill protesters in Tsim Sha Tsui march to the high-speed rail link terminus in West Kowloon on July 7. Photo: Felix Wong

Published: 5:00am, 12 Jul 2019Updated: 9:20pm, 12 Jul 2019

The eyes of the world are on Hong Kong’s extradition bill protests. The millennial-led demonstrations have matured into a global and unstoppable movement. Karl Marx said history repeats itself, “the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce”. This is not the first time Hong Kong has faced a huge social and political crisis.

Fifteen years before the handover, Hongkongers realised that their way of life might no longer be preserved. Across sectors, there was a loss of faith in the city. The stock market plummeted and the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate to the US dollar crashed. The panic did not stop until the Chinese and British governments drafted the Sino-British Joint Declaration. The promise of “one country, two systems” and “Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong” stabilised society.

In theory, there are still 28 years until the pledge of Hong Kong’s economic and political system remaining “unchanged for 50 years” runs out. However, going by the disquiet before the handover, the next big confidence crisis is likely to be in 2033, given that a Legislative Council election will be held in 2032. Optimistically, that will be the final countdown to 2047 – the endgame.

In fact, the Chinese and Hong Kong governments do not believe that the promise that Hong Kong will “remain unchanged for 50 years” must be kept until 2047, although there are many practical problems to be solved from land premiums and bank mortgages to international treaties. Going by the current political instability, it is very likely that 2020 will be the endgame for “one country, two systems.”

Leung Chun-ying was a deeply unpopular chief executive, who undermined Hong Kong’s core values. Although Leung did not stand for re-election, the increasing interference of Beijing’s liaison office in Hong Kong’s administration has opened a Pandora’s box.

Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor’s government has been a puppet of Beijing since she took office. In line with the mission of legislating Article 23, Lam naively believed that she could use the Taiwan murder case as a decoy to amend Hong Kong’s extradition laws, setting off the large-scale anti-extradition movement.

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