US-Taiwan ties under Tsai Ing-wen are at their best in decades, but that may not be enough to prevent diplomatic isolation

Beijing has watched Tsai’s actions closely, and its Belt and Road Initiative may successfully poach Taipei’s last allies

Also, for all the supportive talk by US politicians, the US may not be willing to sacrifice its own interests for Taiwan

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Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen attends a forum at Columbia University in New York on July 12 during a transit stop on her visit to three Caribbean allies. Photo: Handout via EPA-EFE

Published: 11:00am, 23 Jul 2019Updated: 11:16am, 23 Jul 2019

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s recent diplomatic trip from July 11 to 22 included two nights in the United States. Two days before Tsai’s departure, the United States showed support for its unofficial ally by tentatively approving arms sales worth US$2.2 billion to Taiwan.

However, there are three reasons why Trump can hardly expect to save Taiwan from diplomatic isolation.

First, China keeps an eye on it. Since Tsai’s inauguration three years ago, Taiwan has seen a significant improvement in relations with the US, Japan and like-minded nations in Europe. US Senator Cory Gardner, chairman of the Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific and International Cybersecurity Policy, visited Taiwan last May, just two days after Burkina Faso switched sides from Taipei to Beijing.

During his stay, Gardner emphasised that this “bipartisan [US] legislation will help ensure that major international organisations do not turn a blind eye to our ally Taiwan simply because of China’s bullying tactics”. Gardner has reintroduced the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative Act, or the Taipei Act. That is why Tsai visited Denver on July 20.

But if anything is certain, it is that Beijing will not turn a blind eye to Gardner’s proposed legislation. No wonder that China’s ambassador Cui Tiankai tweeted on July 12, “#Taiwan is part of #China. No attempts to split China will ever succeed. Those who play with fire will only get themselves burned. Period.”

In her book The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State, Elizabeth C. Economy of the Council on Foreign Relations pointed out that Xi Jinping’s dual-reform trajectories – a more authoritarian system at home and a more ambitious foreign policy abroad – provide Beijing with new levers of influence the US must learn to exploit to protect its own interests. While Tsai may curry favour among Western politicians, she must explain to them how she will promote stability in the Taiwan Strait. Otherwise, the US is likely to not sacrifice its own national interests to provide Taiwan with support.