My Take | Why Beijing won’t send in the PLA, for now

Suddenly, everyone is digging out their copy of the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, to look up Article 14 and Article 18. Both articles specify the conditions under which People’s Liberation Army troops may be deployed in the city.

There is also the Garrison Law. Together, they provide plenty of legal cover to send in troops to quell the unrest. But, of course, Beijing won’t do it. Why? Because, among other things, there is an implicit understanding against such an eventuality between Beijing and Washington, just like there was between Beijing and London during the colonial era.

Some people have panicked since defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian criticised “radicals” who laid siege to Beijing’s liaison office in Western district and cited the Garrison Law. The rally on Sunday was interpreted as a direct challenge to the central government.

The fear is that Beijing will not take that lying down. No, it won’t, but there are many ways it could punish Hong Kong without sending in troops.

Just as Chinese communists had used their own leverage to influence British colonialists in the way the old colony was run, Americans are now exploiting Hong Kong as another leverage over China. The escalating unrest has complicated the diplomatic dance between the great powers over Hong Kong; they have been stepping on each other’s toes.

That’s why instead of repeating the age-old formula of “foreign influence”, Beijing has explicitly named Britain and the US, and warned them to back off over Hong Kong. That was partly in response to a wholly unnecessary provocation by Washington when US Vice- President Mike Pence, national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo rolled out the red carpet for Next Digital boss and media tycoon Jimmy Lai Chee-ying in Washington early this month.