Editorial | US missile deployment will only raise tensions and risks in the region
- The suggestion by new Defence Secretary Mark Esper will not solve Washington’s strategic problems in Asia. For that, it needs diplomacy and negotiation
Esper’s suggestion was made during a visit to the region to shore up US ties with allies. He initially said the missiles could be in place within months, but later clarified that it could take years. He was right to take stock; no matter how strong his country’s alliances, governments will think twice about hosting such weapons. Japan, South Korea and Australia, the most likely nations, are not likely to do so given the minimal returns and damage to relations with Beijing.
US President Donald Trump’s administration sees a need to push back against China’s growing economic and military muscle to protect its interests. Northeast Asia, the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea are areas Washington has long seen as being in its orbit of influence, but Beijing’s increasing assertiveness and military developments are perceived as tipping the balance of power. Not wanting to be at a strategic disadvantage, the US has been increasing its naval presence and missiles are a logical progression. Without effort, allies may also question pacts that promise protection.
But any Asian country that hosts US missiles would be seen by Beijing as acting provocatively. Chinese trade and investment are crucial to the region’s development and that is too important to be put at risk. American pressure and the dilemma of whether to comply would force the uncomfortable position of making a decision that would anger either Beijing or Washington. In the present environment where China offers growth and the US a balance of power, no government is eager to choose.
There is also the risk of an arms race; the formal withdrawal by the US earlier this month from a treaty with Russia that banned ground-launched nuclear and conventional ballistic and cruise missiles has opened the way for development of new weapons. Washington had accused Moscow of not complying with the pact and has announced it will test a ground-based cruise missile in coming weeks and a medium-range ballistic missile in November. China’s advanced weapons programmes are bound to also be stepped up.