My Take | Hong Kong, fast forward to 2047
- The city need not fear a People’s Liberation Army bloodbath, but the likely scenario when ‘one country, two systems’ expires will be equally terrifying
Hong Kong will not suffer a People’s Liberation Army bloodbath. Most likely, it will bleed out. Let’s consider this likely, though terrible, scenario.
As the promise of 50 years of no change under “one country, two systems” expires in 2047, Hong Kong will cease to be a special administrative region, and become no more than an appendage of Greater Shenzhen.
By that time, the Greater Bay Area will have become fully integrated as a mega metropolis, one of the largest and most productive in the world. Shenzhen will not only be the nation’s pre-eminent hi-tech hub, but also that of the Asia-Pacific region.
Before that, Hong Kong, having failed to diversify its economy due to poor governance and obstructionism from the opposition, suffers negative growth compounded over the next quarter of a century. No political reform succeeds despite repeated talks about reactivating the process as neither the central government nor the opposition will give way.
The Hong Kong government is paralysed. No long or medium-term policy can be formulated or win approval from the opposition. Only the most urgent livelihood budgets can be made to keep people from utter poverty. Government revenue plunges and officials have to, first, dip into fiscal reserves, and then the Exchange Fund, used to defend the US dollar peg. By 2047, there will be no reserves left. The yuan is widely used in the city and many shops refuse to accept Hong Kong dollars.