Hong Kong, fast forward to 2047
- The city need not fear a People’s Liberation Army bloodbath, but the likely scenario when ‘one country, two systems’ expires will be equally terrifying
Hong Kong will not suffer a People’s Liberation Army bloodbath. Most likely, it will bleed out. Let’s consider this likely, though terrible, scenario.
As the promise of 50 years of no change under “one country, two systems” expires in 2047, Hong Kong will cease to be a special administrative region, and become no more than an appendage of Greater Shenzhen.
By that time, the Greater Bay Area will have become fully integrated as a mega metropolis, one of the largest and most productive in the world. Shenzhen will not only be the nation’s pre-eminent hi-tech hub, but also that of the Asia-Pacific region.
Before that, Hong Kong, having failed to diversify its economy due to poor governance and obstructionism from the opposition, suffers negative growth compounded over the next quarter of a century. No political reform succeeds despite repeated talks about reactivating the process as neither the central government nor the opposition will give way.
The Hong Kong government is paralysed. No long or medium-term policy can be formulated or win approval from the opposition. Only the most urgent livelihood budgets can be made to keep people from utter poverty. Government revenue plunges and officials have to, first, dip into fiscal reserves, and then the Exchange Fund, used to defend the US dollar peg. By 2047, there will be no reserves left. The yuan is widely used in the city and many shops refuse to accept Hong Kong dollars.
Why Hong Kong protesters view police as the enemy
Unemployment hits a record. The post of chief executive is abolished as Hong Kong is reduced to a municipal entity. Hong Kong officials beg the central government for economic favours such as those given in the early decades of one country, two systems and to allow northward migration to ease pressure on local entitlement spending, a source of recurrent government deficits.
But Beijing has grown tired of the city’s defiance and ingratitude, and has not been in a forgiving mood in years. Many young Hong Kong people try illegally to sneak through the border to find work in Shenzhen and the Greater Bay Area. Those who migrate north legally face discrimination, as they are accused of exploiting local services, from schooling to medical care.
Periodically, Shenzhen hooligans organise anti-Hong Kong rallies shouting, “Send back those Hongkie pigs!”
