The US has a role to play in the escalating Hong Kong crisis – as a moderating force

Washington is not the ‘black hand’ Beijing believes it to be. But neither should it wash its hands of the crisis, as Trump has apparently done
However limited its role, the US should be urging restraint on all sides and highlighting the credible repercussions beyond Hong Kong of any crackdown

David Lampton

Published: 2:00am, 14 Aug 2019

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In the past six weeks, I have been in mainland China, Hong Kong (three times), and Washington. From these trips and recent developments, I have concluded that Hong Kong is a huge tragedy in the making. Proactive and positive moves by all parties to this rapidly deteriorating situation are required.

Though Washington is not a principal party in these developments, it should be a constructive force rather than irrelevant or counterproductive.

The elements of the current crisis are many. In Hong Kong, there is a leaderless movement on the ground. There are rising levels of political and socio-economic frustration among many Hong Kong citizens stemming from mobility and economic considerations, as well as perceptions of political retrogression in the special administrative region.

There is a tone-deaf, neutered local leadership that is prideful and unwilling to admit that it made a huge strategic misstep pushing forward with an ill-conceived extradition bill. And there are local tycoons who curry favour with Beijing rather than protecting the rule of law that is in their own long-term interests.

Protesters need to restore their own discipline and the municipal government and its supporting business leaders need to show courage in standing up for Hong Kong’s long-term interests.

In Beijing, there is a central government/party/military sovereign power which, I am afraid, is almost destined to make the wrong choices in such circumstances. As Beijing relies more on the heavy hand of the Communist Party and coercive apparatus to rule at home, it is driven to keep its heavy hand credible at home by using the fist in Hong Kong.

One cannot expect much sympathy for Hongkongers among citizens in China – they are prone to view Hongkongers as haughty, arrogant and spoiled

And one cannot expect much sympathy for Hongkongers among citizens in China – they are prone to view Hongkongers as haughty, arrogant and spoiled.

Finally, Beijing feigns to believe that the United States and other outside forces are “black hands” and that if Washington would end its alleged pot-stirring, the problem would go away. This approach reminds me of attempts in the Vietnam war era to blame “outside agitators” for local anti-war demonstrations that were clearly spontaneous combustions on college campuses and in American cities.

The West exploits but did not create the problems Hong Kong has

And finally, Washington needs to be a subtle but moderating force. Instead, what we have is a White House that sends precisely the wrong messages. President Donald Trump seems to have washed his hands of a US interest by referring to what is happening as “riots”.

This is Beijing’s formulation. Washington needs to be encouraging restraint and flexibility on the part of all the parties.

I just don't see how all this can end well. Conceding that the United States role is very limited, it ought not to be counterproductive, nor should its voice be inaudible. I am very mindful that it is far easier for Washington (particularly this Washington) to make things worse or more complicated than to improve circumstances. But it seems Washington should at least be doing a few things, or not doing some things.

First, President Trump should not be saying, in effect, “not our business” and labelling people rioters.

Second, we should be reiterating that Hong Kong is an international issue, as well as within China's sovereignty, if for no other reason than all the documents signed and deposited with the United Nations in connection with China’s resumption of control in 1997 acknowledged the interests of the international community.

Third, we should reaffirm that the US wants all sides to exercise restraint and we should articulate that if force (from outside the special administrative region or by the People’s Liberation Army garrison in Hong Kong) is used, this will have enormous knock-on effects in Asia and the US which would take years, even decades, to repair. The first consequence would be a further nosedive in US-China relations. This is not a threat; it is a description of what will inevitably happen, irrespective of any individual leader's desires.

Fourth, China should quit trying to dump the blame for the current situation on US “black hands”.

Carrie Lam fights tears to warn protesters against pushing Hong Kong ‘into abyss’

And fifth, as to the protesters attacking government offices, whether they be facilities of the local SAR government, the central Chinese government, or the essential functions and infrastructure of any city government, these are acts the US government opposes.

Admittedly, this set of recommendations is pretty paltry, but the US ought to be urging restraint on all the parties and describe credibly what all the consequences will be if a tragedy occurs. Trump seemingly washing his hands of the matter is not right, either morally or as a matter of international interest.

David M. Lampton is Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow at Stanford University’s Asia-Pacific Research Centre, former dean of faculty at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and former president of the National Committee on US-China Relations. His most recent book, Following the Leader: Ruling China, from Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping, was recently reissued in its second edition

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